IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed016/1250.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Expansionary Lower Bound: Currency Mismatches and Monetary Spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Damiano Sandri

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Paolo Cavallino

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

We develop a tractable model of monetary policy in emerging markets featuring currency mismatches and occasionally binding collateral constraints. We show that, if currency mismatches are severe, monetary policy is constrained in its ability to support output, even under flexible exchange rates. We characterize the existence of a strictly positive \expansionary lower bound" (ELB) on interest rates below which further monetary easing has contractionary effects. The ELB is affected by foreign monetary conditions that can in turn constrain domestic monetary policy. In particular, a US monetary tightening raises the ELB and can have recessionary consequences for emerging markets. As a result, a need for policy coordination arises. When the ELB is binding, social efficiency requires accepting some overheating in the US to reduce the contractionary effects on emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Damiano Sandri & Paolo Cavallino, 2016. "The Expansionary Lower Bound: Currency Mismatches and Monetary Spillovers," 2016 Meeting Papers 1250, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:1250
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2016/paper_1250.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hélène Rey, 2016. "International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 6-35, May.
    2. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    4. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    5. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    6. Powell, Andrew & Panizza, Ugo & Caballero, Julián, 2015. "The second wave of global liquidity: Why are firms acting like financial intermediaries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Raghuram Rajan, 2015. "Competitive monetary easing: is it yesterday once more?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1-2), pages 5-16, July.
    8. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2014. "Dilemma Not Trilemma? Capital Controls and Exchange Rates with Volatile Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 569-605, November.
    9. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Global Dollar Credit and Carry Trades: A Firm-Level Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 703-749.
    10. Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura, 2015. "Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.),Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 1, pages 001-011, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, "undated". "Dilemma not Trilemma? Capital Controls and Exchange Rates with Volatile Capital Flows," Working Paper 133566, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paolo Cavallino & Mr. Damiano Sandri, 2018. "The Expansionary Lower Bound: Contractionary Monetary Easing and the Trilemma," IMF Working Papers 2018/236, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Fabiani, Andrea & Piñeros, Martha López & Peydró, José-Luis & Soto, Paul E., 2022. "Capital controls, domestic macroprudential policy and the bank lending channel of monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2016. "International Coordination," NBER Working Papers 21878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Cavallino, Paolo & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "The open-economy ELB: Contractionary monetary easing and the trilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Dash, Pradyumna, 2019. "Dynamics of monetary policy spillover: The role of exchange rate regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 276-288.
    6. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    7. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Bacchetta, Philippe & Cordonier, Rachel & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2023. "The rise in foreign currency bonds: The role of US monetary policy and capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Nadezhda Ivanova & Mikhail Andreev & Andrey Sinyakov & Ivan Shevchuk, 2019. "Review of Bank of Russia Conference on ‘Macroprudential Policy Effectiveness: Theory and Practice’," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 89-121, September.
    10. Korinek, Anton, 2018. "Regulating capital flows to emerging markets: An externality view," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 61-80.
    11. Hélène Rey, 2016. "International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 6-35, May.
    12. Giovanni Ricco & Riccardo Degasperi & Seokki S. Hong, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Working Papers 814, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    13. Jin, Jing & Liao, Rose C. & Loureiro, Gilberto, 2021. "The diverse effects of currency crises on multinational and local firms: The use of foreign currency debt," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Jr Mercado, 2021. "Taming the "Capital Flows-Credit Nexus": A Sectoral Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep0921, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    15. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    16. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Guo, Shen, 2019. "Macro-prudential policies, the global financial cycle and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 147-167.
    17. Stephanie Guichard, 2017. "10 Years after the Global Financial Crisis: What Have We Learnt About International Capital Flows?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-30, October.
    18. Shesadri Banerjee & M S Mohanty, 2021. "US monetary policy and the financial channel of the exchange rate: evidence from India," BIS Working Papers 945, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Alessandro Moro, 2021. "Can capital controls promote green investments in developing countries?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1348, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed016:1250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.