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Selective Default Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Accominotti

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Thilo N. H. Albers

    (HU Berlin)

  • Kim Oosterlinck

    (Université libre de Bruxelles)

Abstract

This paper explores how selective default expectations affect the pricing of sovereign bonds in a historical laboratory: the German default of the 1930s. We analyze yield differentials between identical government bonds traded across various creditor countries before and after bond market segmentation. We show that, when secondary debt markets are segmented, a large selective default probability can be priced in bond yield spreads. Selective default risk accounted for one third of the yield spread of German external bonds over the risk-free rate during the 1930s. Selective default expectations arose from differences in the creditor countries' economic power over the debtor.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Accominotti & Thilo N. H. Albers & Kim Oosterlinck, 2023. "Selective Default Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 425, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    • Handle: RePEc:rco:dpaper:425
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign risk; debt default; secondary markets; creditor discrimination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-

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