AbstractWe study the out-of-sample forecasting performance of several time-series models of equicorrelation, which is the average pairwise correlation between a number of assets. Building on the existing Dynamic Conditional Correlation and Linear Dynamic Equicorrelation models, we propose a model that uses proxies for equicorrelation based on high-frequency intraday data, and the level of equicorrelation implied by options prices. Using state-of-the-art statistical evaluation technology, we find that the use of both realized and implied equicorrelations outperform models that use daily data alone. However, the out-of-sample forecasting benefits of implied equicorrelation disappear when used in conjunction with the realized measures.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Centre for Econometric Research in its series NCER Working Paper Series with number 72.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2011
Date of revision: 29 Aug 2011
Equicorrelation; Implied Correlation; Multivariate GARCH; DCC;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-05-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2011-05-24 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2011-05-24 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Yuta Kurose & Yasuhiro Omori, 2013. "Dynamic Equicorrelation Stochastic Volatility," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-907, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
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