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Fertility Restrictions and Life Cycle Outcomes: Evidence from the One Child Policy in China

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  • Wei Huang

Abstract

I use the experience of China's One Child Policy to examine how fertility restrictions affect economic and social outcomes over the lifetime. The One Child Policy imposed a birth quota and heavy penalties for ?out-of-plan? births. Using variation in the fertility penalties across provinces over time, I examine how fertility restrictions imposed early in the lives of individuals affected their educational attainment, marriage and fertility decisions, and later life economic outcomes. Exposure to stricter fertility restrictions when young leads to higher education, more white-collar jobs, delayed marriage, and lower fertility. Further consequences include lower rates of residing with the elderly, higher household income, consumption, and saving. Finally, exposure to stricter fertility restrictions in early life increases later life female empowerment as measured by an increase in the fraction of households headed by women, female-oriented consumption, and gender-equal opinions. Overall, fertility restrictions imposed when people are young have powerful effects throughout the life cycle. (JEL classification: H70, I20, J00, O12)

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Huang, 2016. "Fertility Restrictions and Life Cycle Outcomes: Evidence from the One Child Policy in China," Working Paper 462311, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    • Handle: RePEc:qsh:wpaper:462311
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    File URL: http://scholar.harvard.edu/weihuang/node/462311
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yi & Zhao, Yi, 2022. "The timing of first marriage and subsequent life outcomes: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 713-731.
    2. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut & Kim, Jungsuk & Park, Donghyun, 2022. "Trajectories to high income: Comparing the growth dynamics in China, South Korea, and Japan with cointegrated VAR models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 492-511.
    3. Tan, Jing & Xu, Hao & Yu, Jingwen, 2022. "The effect of homeownership on migrant household savings: Evidence from the removal of home purchase restrictions in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    4. Chae, Minhee & Meng, Xin & Xue, Sen, 2023. "Fertility, Son-Preference, and the Reversal of the Gender Gap in Literacy/Numeracy Tests," IZA Discussion Papers 16208, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Yue Sun & Liqiu Zhao & Zhong Zhao, 2024. "Hukou Status and Children’s Education in China," Working Papers 2024-004, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    6. Yiming Liu & Yi Han, 2023. "Responsibility-Shifting through Delegation: Evidence from China’s One-Child Policy," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 400, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    7. Chen, Yi & Fang, Hanming, 2021. "The long-term consequences of China's “Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign in old age," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Bansak, Cynthia & Dziadula, Eva & Wang, Sophie Xuefei, 2024. "How China's "Later, Longer, Fewer" Campaign Extends Life Expectancy: A Study of Intergenerational Support for Elderly Parents," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1403, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Erten, Bilge & Leight, Jessica & Zhu, Lianming, 2023. "The Effects of FDI Liberalization on Structural Transformation and Demographic Change: Evidence from China," IZA Discussion Papers 16094, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Rao, Ziwei, 2021. "Do children prevent their poor old parents from working?," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242424, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Nie, Peng & Peng, Xu & Luo, Tianyuan, 2023. "Internet use and fertility behavior among reproductive-age women in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Sun, Yue & Zhao, Liqiu & Zhao, Zhong, 2024. "Hukou status and children's education in China," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1386, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    13. Yujie Wang & Run Ge & Wenjing Gao & Dunzhe Tang, 2024. "How Does Fertility Policy Relaxation Affect Household Financial Asset Allocation? Evidence from the Universal Two-Child Policy in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-23, January.
    14. Lin, Siyuan & Argys, Laura M. & Averett, Susan L., 2023. "Exposure to the One-Child Policy and Fertility among Chinese Immigrants to the US," IZA Discussion Papers 16329, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Yi Chen & Hanming Fang, 2018. "The Long-Term Consequences of Having Fewer Children in Old Age: Evidence from China’s “Later, Longer, Fewer” Campaign," NBER Working Papers 25041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Yi Chen & Yingfei Huang, 2020. "The power of the government: China's Family Planning Leading Group and the fertility decline of the 1970s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(35), pages 985-1038.
    17. Meng, Lina & Peng, Lu & Zhou, Yinggang, 2023. "Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    18. Shuxi Zeng & Fan Li & Peng Ding, 2020. "Is being an only child harmful to psychological health?: evidence from an instrumental variable analysis of China's one‐child policy," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(4), pages 1615-1635, October.
    19. Zhou, Xiaoyao & Ye, Jingjing & Li, Hao & Yu, Hongyan, 2022. "The rising child penalty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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