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Reshaping Thailand's Labor Market Structure: The Unified Forces of Technology and Trade

Author

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  • Nuarpear Lekfuangfu
  • Voraprapa Nakavachara

Abstract

Improvements in technology can have substantial impact on the labor market both directly and indirectly via changes in global trade patterns. This paper studies the potential impact of computerization and reshoring/relocating of operations by firms on Thailand's labor market. Specifically, the analysis is built upon Frey and Osborne's (2017) approach and incorporates additional measures of trade-base tasks. This is so that the revised machine-learning model can account for both the impact of technology and change in global trade patterns. Our results revealed that occupations that are mostly affected are service and sales workers, and agricultural and fishery workers. In the worst-case scenario, approximately one-third of existing jobs (12.14 million jobs) could be at risk. However, in real situations, new types of jobs may be created, workers may voluntarily adjust, or other factors could drive some overseas operations back to Thailand. Therefore, the potential outlook for Thailand's labor market may not be as severe as the model has predicted.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuarpear Lekfuangfu & Voraprapa Nakavachara, 2020. "Reshaping Thailand's Labor Market Structure: The Unified Forces of Technology and Trade," PIER Discussion Papers 123, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:pui:dpaper:123
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment; Skills; Technology; International Trade; Thailand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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