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Will China Avoid the Middle-Income Trap?

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  • Zhou, Haiwen

Abstract

This paper employs a historical approach to address whether a country can avoid the middle-income trap. The development of the manufacturing sector and technological capacities are important for a country to avoid the middle-income trap. South Korea avoided the middle-income trap through developing the manufacturing sector. Argentina became a middle-income country by exporting agricultural goods and fell victim to the trap. The distribution of political power between state and society affect a country’s capacity to develop technological capabilities. The concentration of power in the government in China is affected by historical factors. With the provision of equal opportunities to all citizens, China will avoid the middle-income trap with her building-up of technological and innovative capacities. The reasoning here can also be used to understand development experiences of other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Haiwen, 2017. "Will China Avoid the Middle-Income Trap?," MPRA Paper 82688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82688
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/82688/1/MPRA_paper_82688.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kerry Liu, 2018. "Chinese Manufacturing in the Shadow of the China–US Trade War," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 307-324, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Middle-income trap; economy of China; political economy; technological capability; economic development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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