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The Entropic Linkage between Equity and Bond Market Dynamics

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  • Parker, Edgar

Abstract

An alternative derivation of the yield curve based on entropy or the loss of information as it is communicated through time is introduced. Given this focus on entropy growth in communication the Shannon entropy will be utilized. Additionally, Shannon entropy’s close relationship to the Kullback–Leibler divergence is used to provide a more precise understanding of this new yield curve. The derivation of the entropic yield curve is completed with the use of the Burnashev reliability function which serves as a weighting between the true and error distributions. The deep connections between the entropic yield curve and the popular Nelson–Siegel specification are also examined. Finally, this entropically derived yield curve is used to provide an estimate of the economy’s implied information processing ratio. This information theoretic ratio offers a new causal link between bond and equity markets, and is a valuable new tool for the modeling and prediction of stock market behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Parker, Edgar, 2017. "The Entropic Linkage between Equity and Bond Market Dynamics," MPRA Paper 80036, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80036
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/80036/1/entropy-19-00292-v2.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Luciano Zunino & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2016. "Crude Oil Market And Geopolitical Events: An Analysis Based On Information-Theory-Based Quantifiers," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 21(1), pages 41-51, May.
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    6. Parker, Edgar, 2016. "Flash Crashes: The Role of Information Processing Based Subordination and the Cauchy Distribution in Market Instability," MPRA Paper 80039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nelson-Siegel; Bear market; Equity; Bond; Forecasting; Financial engineering; S&P500; Shannon entropy; Kullback–Leibler divergence; yield curve; volatility; Cauchy distribution; phase transition; entropy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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