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Ein Bayes-Netz zur Analyse des Absturzrisikos im Gerüstbau
[A Bayesian network for analysing the risk of falling from height in scaffolding]

Author

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  • Oepping, Hardy

Abstract

Falling from height while erecting a scaffold is one of the most prominent operative risks of a scaffolding company. Proper estimates of conditional fall probabilities considering all influencing factors are a crucial concern in assessing and implementing suitable risk control measures. This paper proposes an approach to designing a Bayesian network by which the following presumptions can be reviewed: 1. The risk of falling from height is more sensitive to length than to height of a scaffold 2. Project staff changes during running projects generally increase fall probability 3. The fall probability decreases systematically as the erecting process progresses These presumptions will be discussed and scrutinised on the basis of a Bayesian network that provides suitable hypotheses about the relations between fall probability and its most relevant influencing factors. Theoretical implications, occurring problems, and present solutions in designing and applying the risk model will be presented in detail.

Suggested Citation

  • Oepping, Hardy, 2016. "Ein Bayes-Netz zur Analyse des Absturzrisikos im Gerüstbau [A Bayesian network for analysing the risk of falling from height in scaffolding]," MPRA Paper 73602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:73602
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/73602/1/MPRA_paper_73602.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ross D. Shachter, 1986. "Evaluating Influence Diagrams," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 871-882, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    scaffolding; falling from height; risk analysis; risk model; Bayesian network;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • L74 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Construction

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