IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/71594.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growth scenarios for sub-Saharan countries in the framework of economic complexity

Author

Listed:
  • Cristelli, Matthieu
  • Tacchella, Andrea
  • Zaccaria, Andrea
  • Pietronero, Luciano

Abstract

We present a comparative analysis of the medium-long term perspectives of development for sub-Saharan countries in the framework of economic complexity. This analysis is made in comparison with the development of Asian tigers. Economic complexity is a data-driven framework which aims at providing a more scientific basis for the economic theory and it has a specific focus on understanding the determinants of growth by means of two new economic dimensions: the country fitness and the product complexity. We argue that the fitness of countries is a quantitative assessment of those intangible assets, which drive the growth. The comparison of this measure for intangibles with monetary figures provides effective insights on the growth potential of countries and defines the fitness-income plane. The analysis of the dynamics in this plane reveals that most sub-Saharans get stuck in a pre-industrial regime which can be thought as a generalized poverty trap where both income and fitness dimensions are considered. Only Senegal, Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar and Uganda show a behavior compatible with the early steps of a long term stable and sustained growth, which resembles the one of Vietnam and Malaysia at the beginning of the nineties. As expected, South Africa is the most mature economy of the southern part of Africa. However, its trajectory highlights the concrete risk of an incomplete development of its productive system in terms of diversification, which might concretely jeopardize South Africa’s chance to reach the level of wealth of fully developed countries and put the country at risk of getting stuck in the so-called middle-income trap.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristelli, Matthieu & Tacchella, Andrea & Zaccaria, Andrea & Pietronero, Luciano, 2014. "Growth scenarios for sub-Saharan countries in the framework of economic complexity," MPRA Paper 71594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71594
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/71594/1/MPRA_paper_71594.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    3. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-1026, October.
    4. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    5. Ricardo, David, 1821. "On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, edition 3, number ricardo1821.
    6. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    7. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2013. "Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap," NBER Working Papers 18673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alan J. Auerbach & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 1994. "Reassessing the Social Returns to Equipment Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 789-802.
    10. Emanuele Pugliese & Andrea Zaccaria & Luciano Pietronero, 2014. "On the convergence of the Fitness-Complexity Algorithm," Papers 1410.0249, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.
    11. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    12. Andrea Zaccaria & Matthieu Cristelli & Andrea Tacchella & Luciano Pietronero, 2014. "How the Taxonomy of Products Drives the Economic Development of Countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    14. Bleaney, Michael & Nishiyama, Akira, 2002. "Explaining Growth: A Contest between Models," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 43-56, March.
    15. Matthieu Cristelli & Andrea Gabrielli & Andrea Tacchella & Guido Caldarelli & Luciano Pietronero, 2013. "Measuring the Intangibles: A Metrics for the Economic Complexity of Countries and Products," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(8), pages 1-20, August.
    16. Homi Kharas & Harinder Kohli, 2011. "What Is the Middle Income Trap, Why do Countries Fall into It, and How Can It Be Avoided?," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 3(3), pages 281-289, September.
    17. Sanjaya Lall, 2000. "The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-98," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 337-369.
    18. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    19. John C. Anyanwu, 2014. "Factors Affecting Economic Growth in Africa: Are There any Lessons from China?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(3), pages 468-493, September.
    20. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    21. Matthieu Cristelli & Andrea Tacchella & Luciano Pietronero, 2015. "The Heterogeneous Dynamics of Economic Complexity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    22. Tacchella, A. & Cristelli, M. & Caldarelli, G. & Gabrielli, A. & Pietronero, L., 2013. "Economic complexity: Conceptual grounding of a new metrics for global competitiveness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1683-1691.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Orazio Angelini & Matthieu Cristelli & Andrea Zaccaria & Luciano Pietronero, 2017. "The complex dynamics of products and its asymptotic properties," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, May.
    2. Tullio Buccellato & Giancarlo Corò, 2018. "Structural change and convergence across European regions," Working Papers 2018:16, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Orazio Angelini & Matthieu Cristelli & Andrea Zaccaria & Luciano Pietronero, 2016. "The complex dynamics of products and its asymptotic properties," Papers 1610.00274, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    4. Tullio Buccellato & Giancarlo Corò, 2020. "Path dependence in regional structural change: implications for the EU cohesion and innovation policy," Working Papers 2020:14, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    2. Ilkhom SHARIPOV, 2016. "ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EU’S EaP COUNTRIES: DETERMINANTS AND PROSPECTS," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 169-187.
    3. Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George & Pavleas, Sotiris, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: the experts’ view," Papers DYNREG20, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Emanuele Pugliese & Guido L. Chiarotti & Andrea Zaccaria & Luciano Pietronero, 2015. "Complex economies have a lateral escape from the poverty trap," Papers 1511.08622, arXiv.org.
    5. Castañeda, Gonzalo & Pietronero, Luciano & Romero-Padilla, Juan & Zaccaria, Andrea, 2022. "The complex dynamic of growth: Fitness and the different patterns of economic activity in the medium and long terms," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 231-246.
    6. Angelica Sbardella & Emanuele Pugliese & Luciano Pietronero, 2017. "Economic development and wage inequality: A complex system analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-26, September.
    7. Angelica Sbardella & Emanuele Pugliese & Luciano Pietronero, 2016. "Economic Development and Inequality: a complex system analysis," Papers 1605.03133, arXiv.org.
    8. Emanuele Pugliese & Guido L Chiarotti & Andrea Zaccaria & Luciano Pietronero, 2017. "Complex Economies Have a Lateral Escape from the Poverty Trap," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    9. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    10. Chen, Binkai & Lin, Justin Yifu, 2021. "Development strategy, resource misallocation and economic performance," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 612-634.
    11. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    12. Campi, Mercedes & Dueñas, Marco & Fagiolo, Giorgio, 2021. "Specialization in food production affects global food security and food systems sustainability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Hausmann, Ricardo & Stock, Daniel P. & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2022. "Implied comparative advantage," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    14. Minea, Alexandru, 2008. "The Role of Public Spending in the Growth Theory Evolution," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 99-120, June.
    15. Freire, Clovis, 2019. "Economic diversification: A model of structural economic dynamics and endogenous technological change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 13-28.
    16. Inga Ivanova & Øivind Strand & Loet Leydesdorff, 2019. "An Eco-Systems Approach To Constructing Economic Complexity Measures: Endogenization Of The Technological Dimension Using Lotka–Volterra Equations," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-21, February.
    17. Angelica Sbardella & Emanuele Pugliese & Andrea Zaccaria & Pasquale Scaramozzino, 2018. "The role of complex analysis in modeling economic growth," Papers 1808.10428, arXiv.org.
    18. Mika J. Straka & Guido Caldarelli & Tiziano Squartini & Fabio Saracco, 2017. "From Ecology to Finance (and Back?): Recent Advancements in the Analysis of Bipartite Networks," Papers 1710.10143, arXiv.org.
    19. Fabio Saracco & Riccardo Di Clemente & Andrea Gabrielli & Luciano Pietronero, 2015. "From Innovation to Diversification: A Simple Competitive Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-19, November.
    20. Orazio Angelini & Matthieu Cristelli & Andrea Zaccaria & Luciano Pietronero, 2016. "The complex dynamics of products and its asymptotic properties," Papers 1610.00274, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic complexity; economic traps; growth; fitness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71594. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.