IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/65670.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Анализ Официальных И Альтернативных Оценок Инфляции
[Analysis of official and alternative estimates of inflation]

Author

Listed:
  • Gluschenko, Konstantin

Abstract

The mass media frequently accuse official statistics of underestimating the inflation rate (consumer price index – CPI) by half to two-thirds. This paper analyzes potential sources of distortion of the official CPI, concluding that systematic errors causing underestimating are absent, and deliberate distortions are impossible. It also analyzes a number of alternative estimates of inflation and demonstrates that they are based either on the use of a consumer baskets that do not correspond to any real pattern of consumption and deliberately overstate rise in the price level, or on some indirect rationale that does not bear criticism. The only alternative estimate that can be taken seriously is greater than the 2005 official CPI by 2 percent points, that is, by 20% rather than by a factor of 2 to 3.

Suggested Citation

  • Gluschenko, Konstantin, 2015. "Анализ Официальных И Альтернативных Оценок Инфляции [Analysis of official and alternative estimates of inflation]," MPRA Paper 65670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65670
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/65670/1/MPRA_paper_65670.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/67413/9/MPRA_paper_67413.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Бессонов Владимир Аркадьевич, 1998. "О Смещениях В Оценках Роста Российских Потребительских Цен," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 2(1), pages 31-66.
    2. Michael J. Boskin, 1998. "Consumer Prices, the Consumer Price Index, and the Cost of Living," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    3. Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven & Le, Trinh, 2008. "CPI bias and real living standards in Russia during the transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 140-160, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ingvild Almås & Timothy K.M. Beatty & Thomas F. Crossley, 2018. "Lost in Translation: What do Engel Curves Tell us about the Cost of Living?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6886, CESifo.
    2. Voskoboynikov, Ilya B., 2012. "New measures of output, labour and capital in industries of the Russian economy," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-123, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    3. Andrew Dabalen & Isis Gaddis & Nga Thi Viet Nguyen, 2020. "CPI Bias and its Implications for Poverty Reduction in Africa," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(1), pages 13-44, March.
    4. Gluschenko, Konstantin, 2006. "Biases in cross-spave comparisons through cross-time price indexes: the case of Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2006, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. James Gorry & Dean Scrimgeour, 2018. "Using Engel Curves To Estimate Consumer Price Index Bias For The Elderly," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 539-553, July.
    6. Huffman, Wallace, 2004. "Marketizing U.S. Production in the Post-War Era: Implications for Estimating CPI Bias and Real Income from a Complete-Household-Demand System," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11987, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Wallace E. Huffman & Matthew Rousu & Jason F. Shogren & Abebayehu Tegene, 2004. "Who Do Consumers Trust for Information: The Case of Genetically Modified Foods?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1222-1229.
    8. Libor Dusek & Lubomir Lizal (ed.), 2011. "CERGE-EI Tackles Transition," CERGE-EI Books, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague, edition 1, number b05, May.
    9. Patrick Bajari & Zhihao Cen & Victor Chernozhukov & Manoj Manukonda & Jin Wang & Ramon Huerta & Junbo Li & Ling Leng & George Monokroussos & Suhas Vijaykunar & Shan Wan, 2023. "Hedonic prices and quality adjusted price indices powered by AI," CeMMAP working papers 08/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. Hanousek, Jan & Filer, Randall K, 2004. "Consumers' Opinion of Inflation Bias Due to Quality Improvements," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 235-254, October.
    11. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Predicting CPI in France," MPRA Paper 92416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Susan Olivia & John Gibson, 2013. "Using Engel curves to measure CPI bias for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 85-101, April.
    13. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting CPI in Iran: A univariate analysis," MPRA Paper 92454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Goldman, Dana P. & Sood, Neeraj & Leibowitz, Arleen, 2005. "The reallocation of compensation in response to health insurance premium increases," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 147-151, August.
    15. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Predicting CPI in Panama," MPRA Paper 92419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Rachel Griffith & Ephraim Leibtag & Andrew Leicester & Aviv Nevo, 2008. "Timing and Quantity of Consumer Purchases and the Consumer Price Index," NBER Working Papers 14433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Antras, Pol & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2003. "Factor prices and productivity growth during the British industrial revolution," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 52-77, January.
    18. Martin L Weitzman, 1999. "A Contribution to the Theory of Welfare Comparisons," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1864, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    19. Filho, Irineu de Carvalho & Chamon, Marcos, 2012. "The myth of post-reform income stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 368-386.
    20. Lieu, Pang-Tien & Liang, Jung-Hui & Chen, Jui-Hui, 2008. "Consumer preferences and cost of living in Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 224-235, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer basket; consumer price index; CPI bias consumer basket; consumer price index; CPI bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • P22 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65670. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.