The Possible Effects of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership on Chinese Economy
AbstractThe failure to advance the multilateral trade negotiations of the World Trade Organization (WTO) was a disruption for the international trading system. Alternatively, many countries have commenced to establish bilateral and regional Free Trade Agreements (FTA). Among those agreements the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) are agreements with members from across the Atlantic and the Pacific respectively. This note focuses on the impacts of these agreements on Chinese economy under three scenarios. The effects of various scenarios on Chinese GDP and export are studied by using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and a general equilibrium model. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to analytically analyze the economic impacts of the TTIP on Chinese economy. In all of the scenarios the TTIP is realized and China never becomes a member of it. In the first scenario the TPP is not realized. In the second scenario the TPP is realized and China is excluded from it. In the last scenario the TPP is realized and China is included in the initiative. The results suggest that when only TTIP is realized, Chinese economic variables are negatively affected. When both TTIP and TPP are realized and China is excluded, the combined damage in Chinese economy is higher than the damage of TTIP alone. On the other hand, inclusion of China in the TPP affects its economic variables positively despite the negative effects of the TTIP. In other words, positive impacts of participation of China in the TPP compensate for the negative impacts of the TTIP.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 53431.
Date of creation: Feb 2014
Date of revision:
Free Trade Agreements; Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership; Trans-Pacific Partnership; China.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-02-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-INT-2014-02-08 (International Trade)
- NEP-TRA-2014-02-08 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joseph Francois & Miriam Manchin & Hanna Norberg & Olga Pindyuk & Patrick Tomberger, 2013. "Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment: An Economic Assessment," IIDE Discussion Papers 20130401, Institue for International and Development Economics.
- Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Fan Zhai, 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6642, July.
- Walmsley, Terrie & Angel Aguiar & Badri Narayanan, 2012. "Introduction to the Global Trade Analysis Project and the GTAP Data Base," GTAP Working Papers 3965, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2012. "China and the TPP: A Numerical Simulation Assessment of the Effects Involved," NBER Working Papers 18090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gemma Estrada & Donghyun Park & Innwon Park & Soonchan Park, 2012. "China's Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan and Korea: A Comparative Analysis," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(4), pages 108-126, 07.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.