Hiro Lee (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University) David Roland-Holst (Department of Economics, Mills College Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley) Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (The World Bank, Washington, USA)
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China's accelerated global emergence has changed trade patterns in the Asia-Pacific region and exerted important influence on its trilateral relationship with Japan and the United States. In this paper, we evaluate the effects of multilateral and regional trade policy scenarios that are particularly relevant to China, Japan, and the United States using a dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our results suggest that the three countries would gain substantially from a trilateral free trade agreement and could realize large fractions of the residual gains from global trade liberalization. We contrast this with prospective free trade agreements (FTAs) in East Asia, and we find that these FTAs largely benefit smaller member economies (e.g., ASEAN countries).
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Paper provided by Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number
156.