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The Possible Effects of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on Turkish Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Mavuş, Merve
  • Oduncu, Arif
  • Güneş, Didem

Abstract

Due to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) deadlocked multilateral trade negotiations, many countries have started to establish Free Trade Agreements (FTA). In this context, the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) have decided to establish bilateral Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). This note focuses on the impacts of this partnership on Turkish economy. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to analytically analyze the economic impacts of the TTIP on Turkey by differentiating according to Turkey’s inclusion in and exclusion from the TTIP. By using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and a general equilibrium model, the effects of various scenarios on GDP is studied within the framework of four-regional-consolidation, the EU, the U.S., Turkey and rest of the world. Obtained results show that Turkey could be in a gain of 35 billion USD if Turkey is included in TTIP compared to if she is excluded from the TTIP. Moreover, Turkey’s inclusion in TTIP is not only in favor of Turkey but also in favor of the EU and the USA in terms of higher GDP growth rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mavuş, Merve & Oduncu, Arif & Güneş, Didem, 2013. "The Possible Effects of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on Turkish Economy," MPRA Paper 51900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51900
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Joseph Francois & Olga Pindyuk, 2013. "Modeling the Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and Canada, USA and Moldova/Georgia/Armenia on the Austrian Economy: Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis," FIW Research Reports series IV-003, FIW.
    3. Gemma Estrada & Donghyun Park & Innwon Park & Soonchan Park, 2012. "China's Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan and Korea: A Comparative Analysis," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(4), pages 108-126, July.
    4. Fritz Breuss & Joseph F. Francois, 2011. "EU-South Korea FTA – Economic Impact for the EU and Austria," FIW Policy Brief series 010, FIW.
    5. Gabriel Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2013. "The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): Potentials, Problems and Perspectives," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(02), pages 49-60, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TTIP; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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