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Loonies Under Your Bed: Misdirected Attention and the Diluted Value of Stock Market Reports

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Author Info
Lupia, Arthur
Grafstrom, Cassandra
Krupnikov, Yanna
Levine, Adam Seth
MacMillan, William
McGovern, Erin

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Abstract

Many people pay attention to media reports of the US stock market’s performance. Using a data-based thought experiment, we cast the market’s recent highs and lows in an unusually unattractive light. The result matters because the economic and political factors that make it relevant are likely to continue. Using research in economics and psychology, we explain why so many investors and media reports are blind to the unattractive interpretation. To mitigate the blindness’ harmful consequences, we propose an alternate way of presenting stock market information. The alternative is easy to implement and can help citizens draw important inferences from the attention they already pay to financial reports. The word “loonies” refers to Canadian dollars, which play a key role in our analysis. Loonies are not causal of any of the key relationships in our analysis, but provide a useful device for making a broader point about key US asset values.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4912.

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Date of creation: 13 Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4912

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Related research
Keywords: stock market; money illusion; fiscal policy; information; learning; exchange rate;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
A20 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Rupert Sausgruber & Jean-Robert Tyran, . "Testing the Mill hypothesis of fiscal illusion," Discussion Papers 04-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Sep 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 639-668, May.
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  3. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?," NBER Working Papers 11510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. James Poterba & Joshua Rauh & Steven Venti & David Wise, 2006. "Defined Contribution Plans, Defined Benefit Plans, and the Accumulation of Retirement Wealth," NBER Working Papers 12597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. David Dodge, 2002. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 28(2), pages 187-201, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson & Guillermo Moloche & Stephen Weinberg, 2006. "Costly Information Acquisition: Experimental Analysis of a Boundedly Rational Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1043-1068, September. [Downloadable!]
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