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Stock Prices, Real Sector and the Causal Analysis: The Case of Pakistan

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Husain, Fazal

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Abstract

This paper re-examines the causal relationship between stock prices and the variables representing the real sector of the Pakistani economy.Using annual data from 1959/60 to 2004/05, examining the stochastic properties of the variables used in the analysis, and taking care of the shifts in the series due to the start of the economic liberalization program in the early 1990s, the paper investigates the causal relations between stock prices and variables like real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real consumption expenditure, and real investment spending. The analysis indicates the presence of a long run relationship between stock prices and the real sector variables. Regarding the cause and effect relationship, the analysis indicates a one-way causation from the real sector to stock prices implying that the stock market in Pakistan is still not that developed to influence the real sector of the economy. Hence the market cannot be characterized as the leading indicator of the economic activity in Pakistan

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4162/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4162.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Managemant and Social Sciences 2.2(2006): pp. 179-185
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4162

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Related research
Keywords: Stock Prices; Causal Relations; Real Sector; Economic Activity; Pakistan;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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