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Rethinking the Redistribution Effects of Trade Liberalization in Egypt: A Microsimulation Analysis

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  • Zaki, Chahir
  • Hendy, Rana

Abstract

This paper aims at evaluating the liberalization policies effects on inequality in Egypt with respect to gender, region and qualification level. No previous studies in Egypt, to our best knowledge, have used the Microsimulation analysis which is a good tool that allows such an evaluation and determines the redistribution aspects of macro policies. The latter consists of linking macroeconomic changes to the micro level of the economy i.e. the individual level. A Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) is first estimated for a maximum tariff rate of 10%. And, wages and employment changes resulted from the CGE are replicated, in a second stage, into our micro data. Results show that liberalization policies have important impacts on inequalities among the Egyptian population in general. Inequality has decreased among males and females as well as among different regions of the Egyptian society but has increased among high-skilled and low-skilled workers. Results of the present research have important policy implications that have to be considered.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23354.

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Date of creation: Dec 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23354

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Keywords: Trade liberalization; Egypt; CGE;

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  1. Epifani, Paolo & Gancia, Gino, 2002. "The Skill Bias of World Trade," Seminar Papers 707, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Rutherford, Thomas F. & Rutstrom, E.E. & Tarr, David, 1993. "Morocco's free trade agreement with the European community : a quantitative assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1173, The World Bank.
  3. Bourguignon, François & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie & Robinson, Sherman, 2008. "Examining the Social Impact of the Indonesian Financial Crisis Using a Macro-Micro Model," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5130, Paris Dauphine University.
  4. Colombo, Giulia, 2008. "Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models: A Comparison of Different Approaches," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-054, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  5. Decaluwé, Bernard & Dumont, Jean-Christophe & Savard, Luc, 2000. "Measuring Poverty and Inequality in a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Cahiers de recherche 9926, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
  6. Sherman, Robinson & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie & Bourguignon, François, 2005. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modelling of inequality," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4535, Paris Dauphine University.
  7. Denise Eby Konan & Keith E Maskus, 1997. "A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Egyptian Trade Liberalization Scenarios," Working Papers 199701, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  8. Luc Savard, 2003. "Poverty and Income Distribution in a CGE-Household Micro-Simulation Model: Top-Down/Bottom Up Approach," Cahiers de recherche 0343, CIRPEE.
  9. Peter Haan, 2004. "Discrete Choice Labor Supply: Conditional Logit vs. Random Coefficient Models," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 394, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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