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Lifetime Uncertainty and the Optimal Replacement Rate of urban Public Pension in China

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  • Yang, Zaigui

Abstract

By considering lifetime uncertainty, this paper employs an OLG model within general equilibrium framework to analyze China’s urban public pension system. Using the condition for the steady-state of market economy to satisfy the social welfare maximization, we solve the optimal social pool benefit replacement rate. This optimal replacement rate depends on the population growth rate, survival probability in retirement period, capital share of income, individual discount rate and social discount rate. The simulations show that the optimal social pool benefit replacement rate rises with the life expectancy, whereas falls with the population growth rate. It should decrease when the life expectancy has risen and the population growth rate fallen because it is much more sensitive to the latter than the former.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18794/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18794.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18794

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Keywords: Lifetime Uncertainty; Replacement Rate; Public Pension;

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  1. Pecchenino, R.A., 1994. "Social Security, Social Welfare and the Aging Population," Papers, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory 9403, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  2. van Groezen, Bas & Leers, Theo & Meijdam, Lex, 2003. "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 233-251, February.
  3. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 2000. "Dependent children and aged parents: funding education and social security in an aging economy," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1995-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Jie & Lee, Ronald, 2001. "Mortality decline and long-run economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-507, June.
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