IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/apjrin/v2y2008i2n2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Population Growth Rate, Life Expectancy and Pension Program Improvement in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Zaigui

    (Central University of Finance and Economics, China)

Abstract

Applying an overlapping-generations model with lifetime uncertainty, we examine in this paper China's partially funded public pension system. The findings show that the individual contribution rate does not affect the capital-labor ratio but the firm contribution rate does. The optimal firm contribution rate depends on the capital share of income, social discount factor, survival probability, and population growth rate. The simulation results indicate that the optimal firm contribution rate rises with China's life expectancy but, surprisingly, falls with the population growth rate. We demonstrate that the optimal firm contribution rate should be cut when the effect of falling population growth rate is greater than that of rising life expectancy and that the rate is much more sensitive to the population growth rate than to life expectancy. This paper also solves the optimal interval to cope with China's population aging peak in the 2030s.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Zaigui, 2008. "Population Growth Rate, Life Expectancy and Pension Program Improvement in China," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:apjrin:v:2:y:2008:i:2:n:2
    DOI: 10.2202/2153-3792.1019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/2153-3792.1019
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/2153-3792.1019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luisa Fuster, 2000. "Capital Accumulation in an Economy with Dynasties and Uncertain Lifetimes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 650-674, October.
    2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    3. Pecchenino, Rowena A. & Pollard, Patricia S., 2002. "Dependent children and aged parents: funding education and social security in an aging economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 145-169, June.
    4. Eytan Sheshinski & Yoram Weiss, 1981. "Uncertainty and Optimal Social Security Systems," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 96(2), pages 189-206.
    5. Pecchenino, Rowena A & Pollard, Patricia S, 1997. "The Effects of Annuities, Bequests, and Aging in an Overlapping Generations Model of Endogenous Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 26-46, January.
    6. Karni, Edi & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1989. "Aggregate and distributional effects of fair social security," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 37-56, October.
    7. Kelvin R. Utendorf & Rowena A. Pecchenino, 1999. "Social security, social welfare and the aging population," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 607-623.
    8. Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Jie & Lee, Ronald, 2001. "Mortality decline and long-run economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-507, June.
    9. Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Junxi, 2001. "Bequest Motives, Social Security, and Economic Growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 453-466, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zaigui Yang, 2016. "Population Aging And Public Pension: The Case Of Beijing Analyzed By An Olg Model," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Yang, Zaigui, 2009. "Urban public pension, replacement rates and population growth rate in China," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 230-235, October.
    3. Shin, Inyong, 2012. "The Effect of Pension on the Optimized Life Expectancy and Lifetime Utility Level," MPRA Paper 41374, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tabata, Ken, 2005. "Population aging, the costs of health care for the elderly and growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 472-493, September.
    5. Inyong Shin, 2018. "Could pension system make us happier?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1452342-145, January.
    6. Yang, Zaigui, 2008. "Lifetime Uncertainty and the Optimal Replacement Rate of urban Public Pension in China," MPRA Paper 18794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kaganovich, Michael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1999. "Education, social security, and growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 289-309, February.
    8. Michael Kaganovich & Itzhak Zilcha, 2008. "Alternative Social Security Systems and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 2353, CESifo.
    9. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 1998. "The transition from a-pay-as-you-go to a fully-funded Social Security System: is there a role for social insurance?," Working Papers 1997-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Kaganovich, Michael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 2012. "Pay-as-you-go or funded social security? A general equilibrium comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 455-467.
    11. Tetsuo Ono, 2007. "Unemployment dynamics in an OLG economy with public pensions," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 33(3), pages 549-577, December.
    12. Noël Bonneuil* & Romina Boarini, 2004. "Preserving Transfer Benefit For Present And Future Generations," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3-4), pages 181-203.
    13. Zamac , Jovan, 2005. "Winners and Losers from a Demographic Shock under Different Intergenerational Transfer Schemes," Working Paper Series 2005:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    14. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2005. "Intergenerational transfers and demographic transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 191-214, October.
    15. Yang Zaigui, 2005. "Pay-As-You-Go Public Pension Systems: Two-sided Altruism and Endogenous Growth," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-13, June.
    16. Farmer, Michael C., 2005. "Environmental consequences of social security reform: a second best threat to public conservation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 191-209, April.
    17. van Groezen, B.J.A.M. & Meijdam, A.C. & Verbon, H.A.A., 2002. "Social Security Reform and Population Ageing in a Two-Sector Growth Model," Discussion Paper 2002-25, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    18. Jordi Caballé & Luisa Fuster, 2000. "Pay-as-you-go social security and the distribution of bequests," Economics Working Papers 468, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    19. Emerson, Patrick M. & Knabb, Shawn D. & Sirbu, Anca-Ioana, 2019. "Institutional Responses to Aging Populations and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 12561, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Toshiki Tamai, 2023. "Social security, economic growth, and social welfare in an overlapping generation model with idiosyncratic TFP shock and heterogeneous workers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1829-1862, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:apjrin:v:2:y:2008:i:2:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.