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A Bayesian analysis of government expenditure in Nigeria

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  • Olayeni, Olaolu Richard

Abstract

This paper examines the productivity of government expenditure. It adopts a Barro-type production function to chart out a growth model that accounts for the productivity of government spending and also adopts Wagner’s hypothesis to account for endogeneity resulting from fiscal expansion. The model is estimated via the Bayesian technique using the data on Nigeria. The result shows that government expenditure was unproductive in Nigeria and that this conclusion is independent of the macroeconomic environment. Neither is it dependent on the external circumstances. The paper concludes that there is need for urgent budgetary evaluation and close monitoring of the government budget in Nigeria.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18244.

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Date of creation: 18 Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18244

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Keywords: Bayesian analysis; Government expenditure; Wagner’s hypothesis; Nigeria;

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References

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  1. Sugata Ghosh & Andros Gregoriou, 2008. "The composition of government spending and growth: is current or capital spending better?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 484-516, July.
  2. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  3. Schaltegger, Christoph & Torgler, Benno, 2006. "Government Accountability and Fiscal Discipline: A panel analysis using Swiss data," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt1jc275p2, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
  4. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
  5. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139.
  6. Sala-I-Martin, X. & Barro, R.J., 1991. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," Papers 640, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  7. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  8. Afonso, António & González Alegre, Juan, 2008. "Economic growth and budgetary components: a panel assessment for the EU," Working Paper Series 0848, European Central Bank.
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