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How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy in the Southern African Community (SADC)?

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  • Obinyeluaku, Moses
  • Viegi, Nicola

Abstract

Fiscal policy can affect monetary policy either through debt monetisation or through a direct effect on price dynamics. The former is the conventional classical view rooted in the quantity theory of money while the latter is the modern view of the Fiscal Theory of Price Determination. Based on the dynamic response of inflation to different shocks, we test the relationship between fiscal balances and monetary stability in 10 SADC countries. Results show that five out of 10 countries considered here were characterised throughout the period 1980-2006 by fiscally dominant regimes, with weak or no response of primary surpluses to public liabilities. The remaining five countries exhibit a monetary dominant regime. The study also finds that changes in primary surpluses affect price variability via aggregate demand, suggesting that fiscal outcomes could be a direct source of inflation variability, hence, the need for policy coordination in the region.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 15372.

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Date of creation: 25 May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15372

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Keywords: African Economic Integration; Fiscal Monetary Policy Coordination; VAR Analysis.;

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  1. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 4376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Evan Tanner & Alberto Ramos, 2003. "Fiscal sustainability and monetary versus fiscal dominance: evidence from Brazil, 1991-2000," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 859-873.
  3. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1998. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  5. John H. Cochrane, 1998. "Long-term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," CRSP working papers 478, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  6. Luca Sala, 2004. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Identifying Restrictions and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 257, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  7. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Fiscal and Monetary Anchors for Price Stability: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 08/121, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2000. "Understanding the fiscal theory of the price level," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-38.
  9. Ramon Moreno, 2003. "Fiscal issues and central banking in emerging economies: an overview," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal issues and central banking in emerging economies, volume 20, pages 1-9 Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Theoretical Issues Pertaining to Monetary Unions," NBER Working Papers 7393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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