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Measuring the Systematic Risk of IPO’s Using Empirical Bayes Estimates in the Thinly Traded Istanbul Stock Exchange

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Author Info
Muradoglu, Gulnur
Zaman, Asad
Orhan, Mehmet

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Abstract

The systematic risk of IPO’s in the thinly traded Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) are estimated using Empirical Bayes Estimators (EBE). The sectors that the firms belong to, provide the priors. Comparisons are made with OLS estimators across different estimation and forecasting periods. Two benchmark criteria are used; sum of squared residuals and sum of absolute residuals. The application requires some complicated manipulation of the theory where some inferiors of the ordinary Bayesian approach are avoided. Results show that using the EBE procedure, betas can be calculated with greater precision than OLS. This enables us to evaluate IPO’s on similar intuition with other stocks, i.e. in a portfolio context rather than in isolation.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13879/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13879.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published in International Journal of Business 8.3(2003): pp. 315-334
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13879

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Related research
Keywords: Empirical Bayes method; Beta estimation; Forecasting; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Initial public offering.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis

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  2. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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