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A New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - Aggregate System

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  • Dobrescu, Emilian

Abstract

The paper presents the version 2018 of the Romanian macromodel. Among its distinguishing features comparatively with previous variants can be mentioned: a) The econometric procedures are based on statistical series for 1989-2017 years, significantly longer than the previous version (1989-2011). b) There were improved methodological algorithms of approximating some missing data, especially those which concern the tangible fixed assets at constant prices, as a measure of the physical capital of economy. c) In order to ameliorate the operational tractability of the model, the specification of some relationships was revisited, and the modalities of ensuring inter-equation compatibility were also simplified. This version is structured into three main blocks: i) the production factors and output; ii) the domestic absorption and foreign trade; and iii) the prices and exchange rate, the national budget revenues and expenditures, the public debt. The experimental simulations confirmed the predictive plausibility of this new version.

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrescu, Emilian, 2018. "A New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - Aggregate System," MPRA Paper 119105, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:119105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balazs Egert & Tomasz Kozluk & Douglas Sutherland, 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth: Empirical Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 2700, CESifo.
    2. Price, Richard, 2016. "Governance, funding and finance for major infrastructure projects: bridging the gaps," MPRA Paper 74977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hodzic, Sabina & Celebi, Hulya, 2017. "Value-Added Tax And Its Efficiency: Eu–28 And Turkey," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 8(2), pages 79-90.
    4. Ismail, Normaz Wana & Mahyideen, Jamilah Mohd, 2015. "The Impact of Infrastructure on Trade and Economic Growth in Selected Economies in Asia," ADBI Working Papers 553, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Charlotte E. Ruebling, 1973. "A value added tax and factors affecting its economic impact," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 55(Sep), pages 15-19.
    6. Estache, Antonio & Iimi, Atsushi, 2008. "Procurement efficiency for infrastructure development and financial needs reassessed," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4662, The World Bank.
    7. Saman, Corina & Pauna, Bianca, 2013. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 159-171, June.
    8. Emilian Dobrescu, 2013. "Updating the Romanian Economic Macromodel," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-31, December.
    9. Emilian Dobrescu, 2018. "Functional trinity of public finance in an emerging economy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    10. Charles L. Ballard & John Karl Scholz & John B. Shoven, 1987. "The Value-Added Tax: A General Equilibrium Look at Its Efficiency and Incidence," NBER Chapters, in: The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation, pages 445-480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2019. "The New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - The Sectoral Module," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-31, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macromodel; accounting and behavioral relationships; simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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