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The Stochastic Advance-Retreat Course: An Approach to Analyse Social-Economic Evolution

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Feng, Dai
Yuan-Zheng, Zhong

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Abstract

The paper presents the basic theory and conceptual model for advance-retreat course and provides the analytic model the stochastic advance-retreat course and the solving method of it, discusses the relations between the endogenous resistance and subject interests increase with the periodic vibration in an advance-retreat course, gets some results, like heightening appropriately the risk-free interest rate will be favorable to subject interests’ increasing in stable, interests increasing in high-speed will result in the fast increase of resistance, the subject progress in a appropriate pace may bring the conclusion such as lasting interests increase and return with higher-level interests, etc. Finally, the empirical researches empirical, on data of USA GDP (chained) price index, has been made to the stochastic advance-retreat model, and the results show that the stochastic advance-retreat model can describe USA economic development process in recent 65 years.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 117.

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Date of creation: 05 Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:117

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Related research
Keywords: Economic process advance-retreat course the basic theory analytic model

Find related papers by JEL classification:
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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  5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Paul Collier & David Dollar, 2004. "Development effectiveness: what have we learnt?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages F244-F271, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. DAI & Feng QIN & Zifu, 2005. "DF Structure Models for Options Pricing," The Icfai Journal of Applied Economics, ICFAI Press, vol. 0(6), pages 61-77, November.
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  8. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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