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GDP Growth Forecasts of the Reserve Bank of India – A Performance Assessment

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  • Rajesh, Raj
  • Srivastava, Vineet

Abstract

This article evaluates the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) against final official estimates of GDP, which are normally released with a lag of about three years. During 1998-99 to 2016-17, on an average, growth projections underestimated realised growth. Forecast errors, committed in both directions, were free of any systematic bias, and remained modest in a cross-country context.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajesh, Raj & Srivastava, Vineet, 2020. "GDP Growth Forecasts of the Reserve Bank of India – A Performance Assessment," MPRA Paper 104131, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Oct 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast error accuracy performance GDP growth India;

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

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