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The Volatility Curse and Financial Development: Revisiting the Paradox of Plenty

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  • Rick van der Ploeg
  • Steven Poelhekke

Abstract

The volatility of unanticipated output growth in income per capita is detrimental to long-run development,controlling for initial income per capita, population growth, human capital,investment, openness and natural resource dependence. This effect is significant and robust over awide range of specifications. We unravel the effects of volatility by opening the black box and conditioning the variance of growth shocks on several country characteristics. Natural resource dependence, physical and institutional barriers to trade and associated policy shocks increase volatility sharply and harm growth through this indirect channel. The robust indirect effect of natural resources through volatility trumps any direct effects on economic development, even if natural resource dependence is measured net of extraction costs. Financial development appears to mitigate the harmful causes of volatility. Our panel data estimation confirms our cross-country results, but we also offer evidence that well developed financial systems amplify the effect of short-term terms-of-trade volatility on macroeconomic volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford in its series OxCarre Working Papers with number 024.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:024

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Related research

Keywords: volatility; growth; natural resource curse; financial development;

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Cited by:
  1. Andersen, Jørgen Juel, 2011. "The form of government and fiscal dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 297-310, June.

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