IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oxf/esohwp/_041.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Plea for Errors

Author

Listed:
  • Charles H. Feinstein
  • Mark Thomas

Abstract

This paper argues that all historical data series should be accompanied by formal estimates of their margins of error. We discuss the nature of errors in data series and review earlier attempts to assess their reliability. We show how overall margins of error may be calculated for historical series from judgments on the reliability of their components, and how these allow readers both to appraise the estimate and to test the implications of applying different standards. An illustration is provided for Hoffmanns index of British industrial output, 1770–1831. The calculations emphasize the value of this approach to the recent debate on growth rates during the industrial revolution and suggest its merits more generally.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles H. Feinstein & Mark Thomas, 2001. "A Plea for Errors," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _041, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/history/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Federico, Giovanni & Tena, Antonio, 1991. "On the accuracy of foreign trade statistics (1909-1935): Morgenstern revisited," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 259-273, July.
    2. N. F. R. Crafts & C. K. Harley, 1992. "Output growth and the British industrial revolution: a restatement of the Crafts-Harley view," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 45(4), pages 703-730, November.
    3. N/A, 1984. "The Three Measures of GDP," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 107(1), pages 54-59, February.
    4. John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1, March.
    5. Javier Cuenca Esteban, 1994. "British textile prices, 1770-1831: are British growth rates worth revising once again?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 47(1), pages 66-105, February.
    6. Julian Hoppit, 1990. "Counting the industrial revolution," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 43(2), pages 173-193, May.
    7. Temin, Peter, 1997. "Two Views of the British Industrial Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 63-82, March.
    8. Harley, C. Knick, 1982. "British Industrialization Before 1841: Evidence of Slower Growth During the Industrial Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 267-289, June.
    9. Simon Kuznets & Lillian Epstein & Elizabeth Jenks, 1946. "National Income and Its Composition, 1919-1938, Volume II," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn41-3, May.
    10. Martin Weale, 1988. "The Reconciliation of Values, Volumes and Prices in the National Accounts," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 151(1), pages 211-221, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles H. Feinstein & Mark Thomas, 2001. "A Plea for Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W41, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Antras, Pol & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2003. "Factor prices and productivity growth during the British industrial revolution," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 52-77, January.
    3. Crafts, Nicholas, 2004. "Productivity Growth in the Industrial Revolution: A New Growth Accounting Perspective," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 521-535, June.
    4. Stokey, Nancy L., 2001. "A quantitative model of the British industrial revolution, 1780-1850," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 55-109, December.
    5. Greasley, David & Oxley, Les, 2000. "British Industrialization, 1815-1860: A Disaggregate Time-Series Perspective," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 98-119, January.
    6. Robert C. Allen, 2005. "Capital Accumulation, Technological Change, and the Distribution of Income during the British Industrial Revolution," Economics Series Working Papers 239, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Stephen Broadberry & Bruce Campbell & Alexander Klein & Mark Overton, 2010. "British economic growth, 1300-1850: some preliminary estimates," Working Papers 10009, Economic History Society.
    8. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2009. "Expectations, monetary policy, and labor markets: lessons from the Great Depression," Kiel Working Papers 1543, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "From Malthus to Ohlin: Trade, Growth and Distribution Since 1500," CEG Working Papers 20023, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    10. Kelly, Morgan & Ó Gráda, Cormac & Solar, Peter M., 2021. "Safety at Sea during the Industrial Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 239-275, March.
    11. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
    12. Ulaş Karakoç, 2018. "Industrial growth in interwar Egypt: first estimates, new insights," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 22(1), pages 53-72.
    13. Jakob Madsen & James Ang & Rajabrata Banerjee, 2010. "Four centuries of British economic growth: the roles of technology and population," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 263-290, December.
    14. Gerben Bakker & Nicholas Crafts & Pieter Woltjer, 2019. "The Sources of Growth in a Technologically Progressive Economy: The United States, 1899–1941," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(622), pages 2267-2294.
    15. Nicholas Crafts, 2021. "The Sources Of British Economic Growth Since The Industrial Revolution: Not The Same Old Story," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 697-709, July.
    16. Temin, Peter & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2005. "Credit rationing and crowding out during the industrial revolution: evidence from Hoare's Bank, 1702-1862," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 325-348, July.
    17. Fabien Tripier, 2009. "Elasticity of factor substitution and the rise in labor's share of income during the Great Depression," Working Papers hal-00419343, HAL.
    18. Hugh Rockoff, 2019. "On the Controversies behind the Origins of the Federal Economic Statistics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 147-164, Winter.
    19. Crafts, Nicholas, 2000. "Development history," Economic History Working Papers 22384, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    20. Yang, Dennis Tao & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2013. "Modernization of agriculture and long-term growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 367-382.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anne Pouliquen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.