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Assessing the Impact of the ASEAN Economic Community

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Author Info

  • Hiro Lee

    (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)

  • Michael G. Plummer

    (OECD and Johns Hopkins University, SAIS-Bologna)

Abstract

Consequences of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) are investigated using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Quantitative assessments of the effects on economic welfare, trade flows and sectoral output are offered. When the removal of trade barriers are combined with reductions in administrative and technical barriers and lowering the trade and transport margins under the assumption of endogenously determined productivity, the estimated welfare gains for the year 2015 range from 1.1% in Indonesia to 9.4% in Thailand. The results suggest that streamlining customs procedures and other reductions in administrative and technical barriers, as well as increased competition and improvements in infrastructure, are significant in enlarging the benefits of the AEC.

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File URL: http://www.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp/archives/DP/2011/DP2011E002.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University in its series OSIPP Discussion Paper with number 11E002.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:11e002

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Keywords: ASEAN; AEC; CGE model;

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  1. de Melo, Jaime & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Productivity and externalities : models of export led growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 387, The World Bank.
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