IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/hkzdr.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A New Volatility Model: GQARCH-Ito Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yuan, Huiling
  • Zhou, Yong
  • Xu, Lu
  • Sun, Yulei
  • Cui, Xiangyu

Abstract

Volatility asymmetry is a hot topic in high-frequency financial market. In this paper, we propose a new econometric model, which could describe volatility asymmetry based on high-frequency historical data and low-frequency historical data. After providing the quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters, we establish their asymptotic properties. We also conduct a series of simulation studies to check the finite sample performance and volatility forecasting performance of the proposed methodologies. And an empirical application is demonstrated that the new model has stronger volatility prediction power than GARCH-It\^{o} model in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan, Huiling & Zhou, Yong & Xu, Lu & Sun, Yulei & Cui, Xiangyu, 2020. "A New Volatility Model: GQARCH-Ito Model," SocArXiv hkzdr, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:hkzdr
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/hkzdr
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5e7dd307c3f8d300e7fa1b50/
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/hkzdr?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacod, Jean & Li, Yingying & Mykland, Per A. & Podolskij, Mark & Vetter, Mathias, 2009. "Microstructure noise in the continuous case: The pre-averaging approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(7), pages 2249-2276, July.
    2. Bibinger, Markus & Neely, Christopher & Winkelmann, Lars, 2019. "Estimation of the discontinuous leverage effect: Evidence from the NASDAQ order book," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 158-184.
    3. Curato, Imma Valentina, 2019. "Estimation of the stochastic leverage effect using the Fourier transform method," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(9), pages 3207-3238.
    4. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    5. Ilze Kalnina & Dacheng Xiu, 2017. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Leverage Effect: A Trade-Off Between Robustness and Efficiency," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(517), pages 384-396, January.
    6. Kim, Donggyu & Wang, Yazhen, 2016. "Unified discrete-time and continuous-time models and statistical inferences for merged low-frequency and high-frequency financial data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(2), pages 220-230.
    7. Christina D. Wang & Per A. Mykland, 2014. "The Estimation of Leverage Effect With High-Frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(505), pages 197-215, March.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    9. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Zhuo Huang & Howard Howan Shek, 2012. "Realized GARCH: a joint model for returns and realized measures of volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 877-906, September.
    10. Tim Bollerslev & Julia Litvinova & George Tauchen, 2006. "Leverage and Volatility Feedback Effects in High-Frequency Data," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 353-384.
    11. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    12. Xiu, Dacheng, 2010. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of volatility with high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 235-250, November.
    13. Bollerslev, Tim & Kretschmer, Uta & Pigorsch, Christian & Tauchen, George, 2009. "A discrete-time model for daily S & P500 returns and realized variations: Jumps and leverage effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 151-166, June.
    14. Enrique Sentana, 1995. "Quadratic ARCH Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(4), pages 639-661.
    15. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Andrew Matacz & Marc Potters, 2001. "The leverage effect in financial markets: retarded volatility and market panic," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0101120, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huiling Yuan & Yulei Sun & Lu Xu & Yong Zhou & Xiangyu Cui, 2022. "A new volatility model: GQARCH‐ItÔ model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 345-370, May.
    2. Linton, Oliver & Whang, Yoon-Jae & Yen, Yu-Min, 2016. "A nonparametric test of a strong leverage hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 153-186.
    3. Dohyun Chun & Donggyu Kim, 2022. "State Heterogeneity Analysis of Financial Volatility using high‐frequency Financial Data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 105-124, January.
    4. Huiling Yuan & Guodong Li & Junhui Wang, 2022. "High-Frequency-Based Volatility Model with Network Structure," Papers 2204.12933, arXiv.org.
    5. Ekaterina Smetanina, 2017. "Real-Time GARCH," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 561-601.
    6. Fu, Jin-Yu & Lin, Jin-Guan & Hao, Hong-Xia, 2023. "Volatility analysis for the GARCH–Itô–Jumps model based on high-frequency and low-frequency financial data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1698-1712.
    7. Donggyu Kim, 2021. "Exponential GARCH-Ito Volatility Models," Papers 2111.04267, arXiv.org.
    8. Curato, Imma Valentina & Sanfelici, Simona, 2022. "Stochastic leverage effect in high-frequency data: a Fourier based analysis," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 53-82.
    9. Song, Xinyu & Kim, Donggyu & Yuan, Huiling & Cui, Xiangyu & Lu, Zhiping & Zhou, Yong & Wang, Yazhen, 2021. "Volatility analysis with realized GARCH-Itô models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 393-410.
    10. Huiling Yuan & Yong Zhou & Zhiyuan Zhang & Xiangyu Cui, 2019. "Forecasting security's volatility using low-frequency historical data, high-frequency historical data and option-implied volatility," Papers 1907.02666, arXiv.org.
    11. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Fan, Jianqing & Li, Yingying, 2013. "The leverage effect puzzle: Disentangling sources of bias at high frequency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 224-249.
    12. Guido Russi, 2012. "Estimating the Leverage Effect Using High Frequency Data," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 2, pages 1-24, February.
    13. Minseog Oh & Donggyu Kim, 2021. "Effect of the U.S.--China Trade War on Stock Markets: A Financial Contagion Perspective," Papers 2111.09655, arXiv.org.
    14. Donggyu Kim & Minseok Shin, 2023. "Volatility models for stylized facts of high‐frequency financial data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 262-279, May.
    15. Donggyu Kim & Minseok Shin & Yazhen Wang, 2021. "Overnight GARCH-It\^o Volatility Models," Papers 2102.13467, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    16. Amira, Khaled & Taamouti, Abderrahim & Tsafack, Georges, 2011. "What drives international equity correlations? Volatility or market direction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1234-1263, October.
    17. Kim, Donggyu & Fan, Jianqing, 2019. "Factor GARCH-Itô models for high-frequency data with application to large volatility matrix prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 395-417.
    18. Ilze Kalnina & Dacheng Xiu, 2017. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Leverage Effect: A Trade-Off Between Robustness and Efficiency," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(517), pages 384-396, January.
    19. Jorge Caiado, 2004. "Modelling And Forecasting The Volatility Of The Portuguese Stock Index Psi-20," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 9(1), pages 3-21.
    20. Bibinger, Markus & Neely, Christopher & Winkelmann, Lars, 2019. "Estimation of the discontinuous leverage effect: Evidence from the NASDAQ order book," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 158-184.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:hkzdr. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.