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A Tale of Two Shares: The Relationship between the "Illegitimacy" Ratio and the Marriage Share

Author

Listed:
  • Jo Anna Gray

    (University of Oregon Economics Department)

  • Jean Stockard

    (University of Oregon Department of Planning, Public Policy, and Management)

  • Joe Stone

    (University of Oregon Economics Department)

Abstract

We develop a model of fertility and marriage that implies a magnified effect of marriage rates on the share of births to unmarried women. For U.S. data, plots and regression estimates support the prediction that the share of unmarried births is driven primarily by the square of the share of unmarried women. Our findings suggest that some of the emphasis on changes in fertility behavior in explaining the rising share of births to unmarried women might be productively redirected toward exploring the role and determinants of changes in marriage behavior. Moreover, previous studies of fertility behavior, to the extent that marital status is taken as given, may confound fertility and marriage behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Jo Anna Gray & Jean Stockard & Joe Stone, 2004. "A Tale of Two Shares: The Relationship between the "Illegitimacy" Ratio and the Marriage Share," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-16, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Jun 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2004-16
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    File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2004-16_Gray_Two_Shares.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
    2. Herbert Smith & S. Morgan & Tanya Koropeckyj-Cox, 1996. "A decomposition of trends in the nonmarital fertility ratios of blacks and whites in the united states, 1960–1992," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 33(2), pages 141-151, May.
    3. Jeff Grogger & Stephen G. Bronars, 2001. "The Effect of Welfare Payments on the Marriage and Fertility Behavior of Unwed Mothers: Results from a Twins Experiment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(3), pages 529-545, June.
    4. Becker, Gary S, 1973. "A Theory of Marriage: Part I," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 813-846, July-Aug..
    5. John Fitzgerald & David Ribar, 2004. "Welfare reform and female headship," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(2), pages 189-212, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jo Anna Gray & Joe Stone, 2014. "Understanding Measures Of Nonmarital Fertility: The Roles Of Marriage And Access To Human Capital," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 288-305, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; illegitimacy ratio; marriage; non-marital births; non-marital fertility ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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