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A Tale of Two Shares: The Relationship between the "Illegitimacy" Ratio and the Marriage Share

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Author Info
Jo Anna Gray () (University of Oregon Economics Department)
Jean Stockard () (University of Oregon Department of Planning, Public Policy, and Management)
Joe Stone () (University of Oregon Economics Department)

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Abstract

We develop a model of fertility and marriage that implies a magnified effect of marriage rates on the share of births to unmarried women. For U.S. data, plots and regression estimates support the prediction that the share of unmarried births is driven primarily by the square of the share of unmarried women. Our findings suggest that some of the emphasis on changes in fertility behavior in explaining the rising share of births to unmarried women might be productively redirected toward exploring the role and determinants of changes in marriage behavior. Moreover, previous studies of fertility behavior, to the extent that marital status is taken as given, may confound fertility and marriage behavior.

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File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2004-16_Gray_Two_Shares.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2004-16.

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Length: 10
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2004
Date of revision: 01 Jun 2004
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2004-16

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Postal: 1285 University of Oregon, 435 PLC, Eugene, OR 97403-1285
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Related research
Keywords: fertility; illegitimacy ratio; marriage; non-marital births; non-marital fertility ratio;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jeff Grogger & Stephen G. Bronars, 2001. "The Effect of Welfare Payments on the Marriage and Fertility Behavior of Unwed Mothers: Results from a Twins Experiment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(3), pages 529-545, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jo Anna Gray & Jean Stockhard & Joe A. Stone & Jean Stockard, . "The rising share of nonmarital births: A response to Ermisch, Martin, and Wu," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-7, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. JoAnna Gray,JeanStockard & Gray & JoAnna Gray & Hartmut Egger, . "The rising share of nonmarital births: Fertility choice or marriage behavior?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-4, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Joe A. Stone & JoAnnaGray, . "Race Differences in Cohort Effects on Nonmarital Fertility in the United States," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-5, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jo Anna Gray & Jean Stockard & Joe Stone, 2006. "Childbearing, Marriage and Human Capital Investment," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-1, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2006. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.

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