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Sources of Inflation Persistence in the Euro Area

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  • Boris Cournède
  • Alexandra Janovskaia
  • Paul van den Noord

Abstract

In recent years, inflation in the euro area has failed to decelerate decisively while cyclical slack built up in the economy. Is this phenomenon more than a peculiarity in recent data? Is it related to structural policy settings? Econometric analysis conducted on two decades of quarterly data covering 17 countries yields a yes on both counts. First, inflation is shown to respond significantly more weakly to cyclical slack in the euro area than in countries such as the United Kingdom, the United States or Canada. Secondly, this lack of responsiveness is found to be related in a statistically significant way to more rigid structural policy settings. The results pass a wide range of robustness checks. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of the euro area (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/euroarea). Les causes de la persistance de l'inflation dans la zone euro Au cours des dernières années, l’inflation ne s’est pas ralentie de manière sensible au sein de la zone euro alors même que l’écart de production y devenait de plus en plus négatif. Ce phénomène est-il plus profond qu’une bizarrerie des statistiques économiques récentes ? Y a-t-il un lien avec les caractéristiques structurelles de la zone euro ? L’analyse économétrique de deux décennies de données trimestrielles pour dix-sept pays conduit à répondre oui à chacune de ces questions. Premièrement, il apparaît que, pour un même écart de production négatif, l’inflation ralentit moins dans la zone euro que dans des pays comme le Royaume-Uni, les États-Unis ou le Canada. Deuxièmement, il existe un lien statistiquement significatif entre ce manque de réactivité et une plus grande rigidité des politiques structurelles. La robustesse de ces résultats est confirmée par un large éventail de tests. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l'Etude économique de l'OCDE de la zone euro, 2005 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/zoneeuro).

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/854075872581
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 435.

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Date of creation: 20 Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:435-en

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Keywords: monetary policy; inflation; inflation persistence; Economic and Monetary Union; inflation; persistance de l'inflation; politique monétaire; Union économique et monétaire;

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Cited by:
  1. Ian Babetskii & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horvath, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Inflation Persistence: Disaggregate Evidence on the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2007/1, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Babecký, Jan & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Horváth, Roman, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Alexandra Flayols, 2011. "Hétérogénéité de la zone euro et politique monétaire," Post-Print dumas-00647031, HAL.

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