Prediction Markets to Forecast Electricity Demand
AbstractA preference is invariant with respect to a transformation tau if its ranking of acts is unaffected by a reshuffling of the states under tau. We show that any invariant preference must be parametric: there is a unique sufficient set of parameters such that the preference ranks acts according to their expected utility given the parameters. This property holds for all non-trivial preferences, provided only that they are reflexive, transitive, monotone, continuous and mixture linear.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science in its series Discussion Papers with number 1529.
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science, Northwestern University, 580 Jacobs Center, 2001 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208-2014
Web page: http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/research/math/
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-08-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2011-08-15 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2011-08-15 (Forecasting)
- NEP-IND-2011-08-15 (Industrial Organization)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nabil I. Al-Najjar & Luciano De Castro, 2010. "Observability and “Second-Order Acts"," Discussion Papers 1531, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff, 2002.
"A Smooth Model of Decision,Making Under Ambiguity,"
Economics Series Working Papers
113, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Tomasz Strzalecki, 2011.
"Axiomatic Foundations of Multiplier Preferences,"
Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 47-73, 01.
- Simon Grant & Ben Polak & Tomasz Strzalecki, 1969. "Second-Order Expected Utility," Working Paper 8340, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- William Neilson, 2010. "A simplified axiomatic approach to ambiguity aversion," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 113-124, October.
- Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Siniscalchi, Marciano, 2001.
"A Subjective Spin on Roulette Wheels,"
1127, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Cerreia-Vioglio, S. & Maccheroni, F. & Marinacci, M. & Montrucchio, L., 2011.
"Uncertainty averse preferences,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1275-1330, July.
- Robert F. Nau, 2006. "Uncertainty Aversion with Second-Order Utilities and Probabilities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(1), pages 136-145, January.
- Chew, Soo Hong & Sagi, Jacob S., 2008. "Small worlds: Modeling attitudes toward sources of uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 1-24, March.
- Epstein, Larry G. & Seo, Kyoungwon, 2010.
"Symmetry of evidence without evidence of symmetry,"
Econometric Society, vol. 5(3), September.
- Larry G. Epstein & Kyoungwon Seo, 2008. "Symmetry Of Evidence Without Evidence Of Symmetry," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-018, Boston University - Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fran Walker).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.