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Simulating the Response to Reform of Canada's Income Security Programs

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  • Michael Baker
  • Jonathan Gruber
  • Kevin Milligan

Abstract

We explore the fiscal implications of reforms to the Canadian retirement income system by decomposing the fiscal effect of reforms into two components. The mechanical effect captures the change in the government's budget assuming no behavioral response to the reform. The second component is the fiscal implication of the behavioral effect, which captures the influence of any induced changes in elderly labor supply on government budgets. We find that the behavioral response can account for up to half of the total impact of reform on government budgets. The behavioral response affects government budgets not only in the retirement income system but also through increased income, payroll, and consumption tax revenue on any induced labor market earnings among the elderly. We show that fully accounting for the behavioral response to reforms can change the cost estimates and distributive impact of retirement income reforms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9455.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Publication status: published as Baker, Michael, Jonathan Gruber and Kevin Milligan. "The Retirement Incentive Effects Of Canada's Income Security Programs," Canadian Journal of Economics, 2003, v36(2,May), 261-290.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9455

Note: AG LS PE
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  1. James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1988. "Pensions, The Option Value of Work, and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 2686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael Baker, 1999. "The Retirement Behavior of Married Couples: Evidence from the Spouse's Allowance," NBER Working Papers 7138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kevin Milligan, 2001. "Tax-Preferred Savings Accounts and Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence on RRSP Participation," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 52, McMaster University.
  4. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2002. "Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Micro Estimation," NBER Working Papers 9407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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