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A Model of Research, Patenting, and Technological Change

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Samuel Kortum

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Abstract

I use the aggregate behavior of three indicators of technology (employment of research scientists and engineers, patented inventions, and total factor productivity) to identify a plausible model of endogenous technological change. In the US (as well as in other developed countries) research employment and total factor productivity have both grown, while the rate of patenting has remained relatively flat. One interpretation of these facts is that: (i) patentable inventions are becoming increasingly difficult to discover as the quality of techniques in use increases, (ii) inventions which are patented represent percentage improvements on techniques currently in use, and (iii) the size of the economy is growing, making patents increasingly valuable and justifying increased research efforts devoted to discovering them. This paper presents a general equilibrium search theoretic model of invention which formalizes this view.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4646.

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Date of creation: Feb 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4646

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  1. Griliches, Zvi, 1990. "Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Adam B. Jaffe, 1993. "How High are the Giants' Shoulders: An Empirical Assessment of Knowledge Spillovers and Creative Destruction in a Model of Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 15-86 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Mansfield, Edwin & Schwartz, Mark & Wagner, Samuel, 1981. "Imitation Costs and Patents: An Empirical Study," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(364), pages 907-18, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Evenson, Robert E & Kislev, Yoav, 1976. "A Stochastic Model of Applied Research," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 265-81, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Pakes, Ariel S, 1986. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 755-84, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Cockburn, Iain & Henderson, Rebecca, 1994. "Racing to Invest? The Dynamics of Competition in Ethical Drug Discovery," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 481-519, Fall.
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  8. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Reinganum, Jennifer F., 1989. "The timing of innovation: Research, development, and diffusion," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: R. Schmalensee & R. Willig (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 849-908 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Kortum, S., 1991. "R & D Patents and the Progress of Technology in a Search Model," Papers 17, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  12. Richard C. Levin & Alvin K. Klevorick & Richard R. Nelson & Sidney G. Winter, 1987. "Appropriating the Returns from Industrial Research and Development," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1987-3), pages 783-832. [Downloadable!]
  13. repec:fth:harver:1473 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Judd, Kenneth L, 1985. "On the Performance of Patents," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 567-85, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ariel Pakes, 1986. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," NBER Working Papers 1340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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