Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Making Sense of the Soviet Trade Shock in Eastern Europe: A Framework and Some Estimates

Contents:

Author Info

  • Dani Rodrik

Abstract

Eastern European countries have experienced sharp declines in real GDP since 1990. One of the reasons for this decline is the Soviet trade shock, deriving from the collapse of the CMEA and of traditional export markets in the Soviet Union. This paper is an attempt to quantify the magnitude of this external shock. A conceptual framework is developed to show that the shock has three distinct elements: (a) a terms of trade deterioration; (b) a market-loss effect; and (c) a removal-of-import-subsidy effect. Taking all three together, and also adding in Keynesian multiplier effects, the conclusion is that the Soviet trade shock accounts for all of the decline in Hungarian GDP, about 60 percent of decline in Czechoslovakia, and between a quarter and a third of the decline in Poland.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4112.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4112.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jun 1992
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4112

Note: ITI
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Peter B. Kenen, 1991. "Transitional Arrangements for Trade and Payments among the CMEA Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(2), pages 235-267, June.
  2. Oblath, Gabor & Tarr, David, 1992. "The terms-of-trade effects from the elimination of state trading in Soviet-Hungarian trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 75-93, March.
  3. Dani Rodrik, 1992. "Foreign Trade in Eastern Europe's Transition: Early Results," NBER Working Papers 4064, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Landesmann, Michael & Székely, Istvan, 1991. "Industrial Restructuring and the Reorientation of Trade in Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland," CEPR Discussion Papers 546, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Paul Hare & Alan Bevan & Jon Stern & Saul Estrin, 2000. "Supply Responses in the Economies of the Former Soviet Union," CERT Discussion Papers 0009, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
  2. Pastor, Manuel Jr & Zimbalist, Andrew, 1995. "Waiting for change: Adjustment and reform in Cuba," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 705-720, May.
  3. Go, Delfin S., 1994. "Revenue uncertainty and the choice of tax instrument during the transition in Eastern Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1330, The World Bank.
  4. Commander, Simon & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 1992. "Output decline in Hungary and Poland in 1990-91 : structural change and aggregate shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1036, The World Bank.
  5. Kazimierz Stanczak, 1994. "Endogenous Market Power and Adjustment under Fixed Exchange Rates: Interpreting the Polish Experience 1990-1991," UCLA Economics Working Papers 714, UCLA Department of Economics.
  6. Avanesyan, Vahram & Freinkman, Lev, 2002. "Costing-out the Big Bang: Impact of external shocks on the Armenian economy at the outset of transition," MPRA Paper 10012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Kazimierz Stanczak, 1992. "A Devaluation With Labor-Intensive Trading and Inelastic Labor Supply," UCLA Economics Working Papers 683, UCLA Department of Economics.
  8. Joshua Aizenman & Peter Isard, 1993. "Resource Allocation During the Transition to a Market Economy: Political Implications of Supply Bottlenecks and Adjustment Costs," NBER Working Papers 4366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.