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Inflation and GDP Dynamics in Production Networks: A Sufficient Statistics Approach

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  • Hassan Afrouzi
  • Saroj Bhattarai

Abstract

We derive closed-form solutions and sufficient statistics for inflation and GDP dynamics in multi-sector New Keynesian economies with arbitrary input-output linkages. Analytically, we decompose how production linkages (1) amplify the persistence of inflation and GDP responses to monetary and sectoral shocks and (2) increase the pass-through of sectoral shocks to aggregate inflation. Quantitatively, we confirm the significant role of production networks in shock propagation, emphasizing the disproportionate effects of sectors with large input-output adjusted price stickiness: The three sectors with the highest contribution to the persistence of aggregate inflation have consumption shares of around zero but explain 16% of monetary non-neutrality.

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  • Hassan Afrouzi & Saroj Bhattarai, 2023. "Inflation and GDP Dynamics in Production Networks: A Sufficient Statistics Approach," NBER Working Papers 31218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31218
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    Cited by:

    1. Balleer, Almut & Noeller, Marvin, 2023. "Monetary policy in the presence of supply constraints: Evidence from German firm-level data," Ruhr Economic Papers 1060, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2023. "Comment on "Inflation Strikes Back: The Role of Import Competition and the Labor Market"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2023, volume 38, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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