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Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the Canadian General Election

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James A. Brander

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Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) and election polls during the 1988 Canadian General Election campaign. Two hypotheses are investigated: first, did polls influence the TSE, and secondly, if so, did the nature of the influence suggest that investors were reacting to expectations concerning the effect of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA)? I find that the TSE was positively related to Conservative popularity as measured by polls, but that the differential movement of TSE subindices does not offer additional support to an FTA based interpretation of events.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3073.

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Date of creation: Aug 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3073

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Hamilton, Robert W & Whalley, John, 1985. "Geographically Discriminatory Trade Arrangements," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 446-55, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. B. Espen Eckbo, 1986. "Mergers and the Market for Corporate Control: The Canadian Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 236-60, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robin W. Boadway & John M. Treddenick, 1978. "A General Equilibrium Computation of the Effects of the Canadian Tariff Structure," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 11(3), pages 424-46, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Krugman, Paul R, 1981. "Intraindustry Specialization and the Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 959-73, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Frey, Bruno S., 1978. "Politico-economic models and cycles," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 203-220, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Brander, James A., 1981. "Intra-industry trade in identical commodities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Baggs, Jennifer & Brander, James A., 2005. "Trade Liberalization, Profitability, and Financial Leverage," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2005256e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch. [Downloadable!]
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