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The Estimation of Prewar GNP: Methodology and New Evidence

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Author Info
Nathan S. Balke
Robert J. Gordon

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Abstract

The paper develops new methodology for the estimation of prewar GNP, taps previously unused data sources, and develops new estimates for the periods 1869-08 and 1869-28. Primary among the new data sources are direct measures of output in the transportation, communications, and construction sectors, and estimates of the consumer price index. New measures of real GNP, nominal GNP, and the GNP deflator are developed. The new estimates of real GNP are as volatile on average over the business cycle as the traditional Kuznets-Kendrick aeries but dampen the amplitude of some cycles while raising the amplitude of others. The new estimates of the GNP deflator are distinctly less volatile than the traditional series and in fact no more volatile than in the postwar period.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2674.

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Date of creation: Jun 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2674

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  1. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, . "On the Existence and Interpretation of a `Unit Root' in U.S. Real GDP," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _137, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Giovanni Federico, 2005. "Not guilty? Agriculture in the 1920s and the Great Depression," Working Papers in Economic History dilf0502, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones. [Downloadable!]
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  3. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "On the Existence and Interpretation of the "Unit Root" in U.S. GNP," NBER Working Papers 2716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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