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Liquidity vs. Wealth in Household Debt Obligations: Evidence from Housing Policy in the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Ganong
  • Pascal Noel

Abstract

We use variation in mortgage modifications to disentangle the impact of reducing long-term obligations with no change in short-term payments (“wealth”), and reducing short-term payments with approximately no change in long-term obligations (“liquidity”). Using regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences research designs with administrative data measuring default and consumption, we find that principal reductions that increase housing wealth without affecting liquidity have no effect, while maturity extensions that increase only liquidity have large effects. Our results suggest that liquidity drives borrower default and consumption decisions, and that distressed debt restructurings can be redesigned with substantial gains to borrowers, lenders, and taxpayers.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel, 2018. "Liquidity vs. Wealth in Household Debt Obligations: Evidence from Housing Policy in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 24964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24964
    Note: CF PE
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    Cited by:

    1. Adrien Auclert & Will S. Dobbie & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 25685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Zekai He & Jingjing Ye & Xiuzhen Shi, 2020. "Housing wealth and household consumption in urban China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(8), pages 1714-1732, June.
    3. Montalvo, José G. & Piolatto, Amedeo & Raya, Josep, 2020. "Transaction-tax evasion in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Kuchler, Theresa & Pagel, Michaela, 2021. "Sticking to your plan: The role of present bias for credit card paydown," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 359-388.
    5. Scott R Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 834-862.
    6. Gianni La Cava & Lydia Wang, 2021. "The Rise in Household Liquidity," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Marco Di Maggio & Ankit Kalda & Vincent Yao, 2019. "Second Chance: Life without Student Debt," NBER Working Papers 25810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke, 2018. "The Real Effects of Disrupted Credit: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 251-342.
    9. Cookson, J. Anthony & Gilje, Erik P. & Heimer, Rawley Z., 2022. "Shale shocked: Cash windfalls and household debt repayment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 905-931.
    10. Granja, João & Makridis, Christos & Yannelis, Constantine & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 725-761.
    11. Nicholas Henry, 2022. "How Public Administrators Inadvertently Helped Get Donald J. Trump Elected President: The Great Recession, the Housing Crisis, and the Failure of Public Policy," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1325-1342, December.
    12. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2019. "Crises in the Housing Market: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Lessons," Working Papers 2019-33, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Soyoung Lee, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions," Staff Working Papers 23-48, Bank of Canada.
    14. Bronson Argyle & Taylor D. Nadauld & Christopher Palmer, 2019. "Monthly Payment Targeting and the Demand for Maturity," NBER Working Papers 25668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. J. Anthony Cookson & Erik P. Gilje & Rawley Z. Heimer, 2020. "Shale Shocked: Cash Windfalls and Household Debt Repayment," NBER Working Papers 27782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Peter Ganong & Pascal J. Noel, 2020. "Why Do Borrowers Default on Mortgages?," NBER Working Papers 27585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Neil Bhutta & Jesse Bricker & Lisa J. Dettling & Jimmy Kelliher & Steven Laufer, 2019. "Stress Testing Household Debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Peter Ganong & Pascal J. Noel, 2020. "Why Do Borrowers Default on Mortgages? A New Method For Causal Attribution," Working Papers 2020-100, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R28 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Government Policy

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