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Is the Japan Problem Over?

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  • Paul Krugman

Abstract

This paper argues that Japan's export growth is likely to slow sharply over the next few years, perhaps to zero. For the past dozen years Japan's export volume has gown much more rapidly than her domestic production. This divergence was made necessary primarily by rising oil prices, and secondarily by a shift into current account surplus. Now both these factors are running in reverse. If Japan's export growth does slow sharply, the mechanism will be a very strong yen -- probably above 140. The paper argues that it is Japan's export growth rather than static trade structure that is the main cause o± trade tension, so these developments should lead to a considerable reduction in trade friction.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1962.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1962.

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Date of creation: Jun 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1962

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Cited by:
  1. Mahadevan, Renuka & Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-174, March.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "Short-term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 2216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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