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Estimation and Evaluation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models

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  • Stefan Nagel
  • Kenneth J. Singleton

Abstract

We find that several recently proposed consumption-based models of stock returns, when evaluated using an optimal set of managed portfolios and the associated model-implied conditional moment restrictions, fail to capture key features of risk premiums in equity markets. To arrive at these conclusions, we construct an optimal GMM estimator for models in which the stochastic discount factor (SDF) is a conditionally affine function of a set of priced risk factors. Further, for the (often relevant) case where a researcher is proposing a generalized SDF relative to some null model, we show that there is an optimal choice of managed portfolios to use in testing the null against the proposed alternative.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16457.

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Date of creation: Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16457

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Cited by:
  1. Klein, Rudolf F. & Chow, Victor K., 2013. "Orthogonalized factors and systematic risk decomposition," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 175-187.
  2. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2014. "Benchmark models of expected returns in U.K. portfolio performance: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 30-46.
  3. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2013. "Chi-squared tests for evaluation and comparison of asset pricing models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 108-125.
  4. Kang, Hankil & Kang, Jangkoo & Lee, Changjun, 2013. "Do the production-based factors capture the time-varying patterns in stock returns?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 122-135.
  5. Nikolai Roussanov, 2010. "Composition of Wealth, Conditioning Information, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 16073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Manuel Arellano & Lars Peter Hansen & Enrique Sentana, 2009. "Underidentification?," Working Papers wp2009_0905, CEMFI.
  7. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2010. "Estimation of Jump Tails," CREATES Research Papers 2010-16, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  8. Aono, Kohei & Iwaisako, Tokuo, 2013. "The consumption–wealth ratio, real estate wealth, and the Japanese stock market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 39-51.
  9. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  10. Gagliardini, Patrick & Ronchetti, Diego, 2013. "Semi-parametric estimation of American option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 57-82.
  11. Galvani, Valentina & Gubellini, Stefano, 2013. "Mean–variance dominant trading strategies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 142-150.

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