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Financially Constrained Fluctuations in an Evolving Network Economy

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  • Domenico Delli Gatti
  • Mauro Gallegati
  • Bruce C. Greenwald
  • Alberto Russo
  • Joseph E. Stiglitz

Abstract

We explore the properties of a credit network characterized by inside credit - i.e. credit relationships connecting downstream (D) and upstream (U) firms - and outside credit - i.e. credit relationships connecting firms and banks. The structure of the network changes over time due to the preferred-partner choice rule: each agent chooses the partner who charges the lowest price. The net worth of D firms turns out to be the driver of fluctuations. U production, in fact, is determined by demand of intermediate inputs on the part of D firms and production of the latter is financially constrained, i.e. determined by the availability of internal finance proxied by net worth. The output of simulations shows that at the macroeconomic level a business cycle can develop as a consequence of the complex interaction of the agents' financial conditions. We can also reproduce the main stylized facts of firms' demography, i.e. the power law distribution of firms' size and the Laplace distribution of firms' growth rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14112.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14112

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  1. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2006. "Business fluctuations in a credit-network economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 68-74.
  2. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1988. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114, February.
  4. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno & Rochet, Jean Charles, 1999. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," CEPR Discussion Papers 2325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-28, February.
  9. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2008. "Network models and financial stability," Bank of England working papers 346, Bank of England.
  10. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
  11. Bak, Per & Chen, Kan & Scheinkman, Jose & Woodford, Michael, 1993. "Aggregate fluctuations from independent sectoral shocks: self-organized criticality in a model of production and inventory dynamics," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-30, March.
  12. Iori, Giulia & Jafarey, Saqib & Padilla, Francisco G., 2006. "Systemic risk on the interbank market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 525-542, December.
  13. Boissay, Frédéric, 2006. "Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress," Working Paper Series 0573, European Central Bank.
  14. Bottazzi, Giulio & Secchi, Angelo, 2003. "Why are distributions of firm growth rates tent-shaped?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 415-420, September.
  15. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
  16. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2003. "On the size distribution of firms: additional evidence from the G7 countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 117-123.
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Cited by:
  1. Russo, Alberto, 2010. "Elementi di novità, meccanismi noti e cause di fondo della recente crisi
    [Elements of novelty, known mechanisms, and fundamental causes of the recent crisis]
    ," MPRA Paper 21648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Leonardo Bargigli & Gabriele Tedeschi, 2013. "Major trends in agent-based economics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 211-217, October.
  3. P. Sieczka & D. Sornette & J. Holyst, 2011. "The Lehman Brothers effect and bankruptcy cascades," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 82(3), pages 257-269, August.
  4. Pawe{\l} Sieczka & Didier Sornette & Janusz A. Ho{\l}yst, 2010. "The Lehman Brothers Effect and Bankruptcy Cascades," Papers 1002.1070, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2011.

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