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Economically Sensible Solutions for Linear Rational Expectations Models with Forward and Backward Looking Dynamic Processes

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Michael L. Mussa
Abstract

Using variants of a modified version of Dornbusch's model of price level and exchange rate dynamics, it is demonstrated that satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of a unigue non-explosive solution of a linear rational expectations model with forward and backward looking dynamic processes (equality of the number of stable roots with the number of independent backward looking processes) does not guarantee the economic sensibility of this solution, even if one accepts the usual arguments for excluding "speculative babbles" from the solutions of such models. Moreover, satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of an infinity of non-explosive solutions for such rational expectations models (more stable roots than independent backward looking processes) does not assure that any of these solutions is economically sensible.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1398.

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Date of creation: Jul 1984
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1398

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  1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Blinder, Alan S. & Fischer, Stanley, 1981. "Inventories, rational expectations, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 277-304. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1999. "On the use of reserve requirements in dealing with capital flow problems," MPRA Paper 13703, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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