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The Future of Drug Development: The Economics of Pharmacogenomics

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  • John A. Vernon
  • W. Keener Hughen
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    Abstract

    This paper models how the evolving field of pharmacogenomics (PG), which is the science of using genomic markers to predict drug response, may impact drug development times, attrition rates, costs, and the future returns to research and development (R&D). While there still remains an abundance of uncertainty around how PG will impact the future landscape of pharmaceutical and biological R&D, we identify several likely outcomes. We conclude PG has the potential to significantly reduce both expected drug development costs (via higher probabilities of technical success, shorter clinical development times, and smaller clinical trials) and returns. The impact PG has on expected returns is partially mitigated by higher equilibrium prices, expedited product launches, and longer effective patent lives. Our conclusions are, of course, accompanied by numerous caveats.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11875.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11875.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2005
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    Publication status: published as Vernon, J., Hughen K., Trujillo, A. The Future of Drug Development: The Economics of Pharmacogenomics. January 2008, Vol. 1, No. 1, Pages 49-59 Expert Review of Clinical Pharmacology
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11875

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    1. John A. Vernon, 2005. "Examining the link between price regulation and pharmaceutical R&D investment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-16.
    2. DiMasi, Joseph A. & Hansen, Ronald W. & Grabowski, Henry G., 2003. "The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 151-185, March.
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