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Adjustment to Expected and Unexpected Oil Price Changes

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  • Nancy Peregrim Marion
  • Lars E.O. Svensson

Abstract

For oil importers, differences in economic performance after the 1973-74 oil price increase and after the 1979-80 increase can be attributed to a number of factors, including the fact that the 1973-74 oil price increase was unexpected whereas the 1979-80 increase was largely expected. In this paper, we analyze how an economy's adjustment to expected oil price increases might differ from its adjustment to unexpected increases. By expected oil price increases, we shall mean ones that were anticipated in the past, and by unexpected oil price increases, we shall mean those that were not anticipated in the past but occur unexpectedly in the present. We model this distinction using a three- period model, where the periods are called the past, present and future.

Suggested Citation

  • Nancy Peregrim Marion & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1982. "Adjustment to Expected and Unexpected Oil Price Changes," NBER Working Papers 0997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0997
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marion, Nancy Peregrim & Svensson, Lars E O, 1984. "World Equilibrium with Oil Price Increases: An Intertemporal Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 86-102, March.
    2. Nancy Peregrim Marion & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1982. "Structural Differences and Macroeconomic Adjustment to Oil Price Increases in a Three-Country Model," NBER Working Papers 0839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bruno, Michael, 1982. " Adjustment and Structural Change under Supply Shocks," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 199-221.
    4. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
    5. Marion, Nancy P., 1984. "Nontraded goods, oil price increases and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 29-44, February.
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    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Frenkel, Jacob A, 1986. "Supply Shocks, Wage Indexation and Monetary Accommodation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 304-322, August.
    2. O Okiti, 2003. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Terms of Trade Shocks: A Small Open Economy Case," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0333, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. O Okiti, 2003. "Temporary and Permanent Terms of Trade Shocks: A Literature Survey," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0334, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    4. Jeroen Schokkaert & Johan F.M. Swinnen & Thijs Vandemoortele, 2012. "Mega Events and Sports Institutional Development: The Impact of the World Cup on Football Academies in Africa," Chapters, in: Wolfgang Maennig & Andrew Zimbalist (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Mega Sporting Events, chapter 19, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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