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Taxation and the Stock Market Valuation of Capital Gains and Dividends: Theory and Empirical Results (Rev)

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  • Roger H. Gordon
  • David F. Bradford

Abstract

Dividends seem to be more heavily taxed than capital gains. Why then do corporations pay dividends rather than repurchasing shares or retaining earnings? Either corporations are not acting in the interests of shareholders, or else shareholders desire dividends sufficiently for nontax reasons to offset the tax effect. In this paper, we measure the relative valuation of dividends and capital gains in the stock market, using a variant of the capital asset pricing model. We find that dividends are not valued differently systematically from capital gains. This finding is consistent with share price maximization by firms but inconsistent with the fact that most shareholders pay a heavier tax on dividends. We also show that the relative value of dividends provides an indirect measure of a marginal Tobin's q. The measured value of dividends relative to capital gains tends to be higher during prosperous periods, as is consistent with this interpretation. We hope that this time series on a marginal Tobin's q will prove to be useful in forecasting the rate of investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger H. Gordon & David F. Bradford, 1979. "Taxation and the Stock Market Valuation of Capital Gains and Dividends: Theory and Empirical Results (Rev)," NBER Working Papers 0409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0409
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eugene F. Fama, 1968. "Risk, Return And Equilibrium: Some Clarifying Comments," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 29-40, March.
    2. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1970. "Marginal Stockholder Tax Rates and the Clientele Effect," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(1), pages 68-74, February.
    3. George M. Von Furstenberg, 1977. "Corporate Investment: Does Market Valuation Matter in the Aggregate?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(2), pages 347-408.
    4. Williams, Joseph T., 1977. "Capital asset prices with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 219-239, November.
    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron, 1974. "The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jerry R. Green, 1980. "Taxation and the Ex-Dividend Day Behavior of Common Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 0496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Roger H. Gordon & Burton G. Malkiel, 1980. "Taxation and Corporation Finance," NBER Working Papers 0576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alan J. Auerbach & Mervyn A. King, 1983. "Taxation, Portfolio Choice, and Debt-Equity Ratios: A General Equilibrium Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(4), pages 587-609.

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