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An Evaluation of the Role of Factor Markets and Intensities in the Social Security Crisis: A Progress Report

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  • John B. Shoven
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    Abstract

    This paper begins to evaluate some of the complicated set of economic adjustments which are going to occur as the uneven population age structure of the U.S. matures. It argues that in the 2012-2035 "crunch" years for the social security system not only will workers be scarce relative to retirees, but they will also be scarce relative to capital. This fact will tend to raise the wage-rentals ratio and partially alleviate the problems of a retirement plan supported by taxes on labor income. On the other hand, during this period the large number of elderly persons will be attempting to dis-save by selling their assets to the relatively few younger, accumulating families. Such an imbalance will be equilibrated only by depressed asset prices. The conclusion, thus, is that the problems of the social security system may be partially alleviated by factor price adjustments, while private funded pension plans will have a problem of their own, namely lower than anticipated liquidation values.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0216.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0216.

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    Date of creation: Nov 1977
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    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0216

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    1. Feldstein, Martin S, 1976. "Social Security and Saving: The Extended Life Cycle Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 77-86, May.
    2. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
    3. Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2001. "Social Security," NBER Working Papers 8451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324 Elsevier.
    4. Charles L. Ballard & Don Fullerton & John B. Shoven & John Whalley, 1985. "General Equilibrium Analysis of Tax Policies," NBER Chapters, in: A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation, pages 6-24 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1973. "General Equilibrium with Taxes: A Computational Procedure and an Existence Proof," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 475-89, October.
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