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Predetermined and Non-Predetermined Variables in Rational Expectations Models

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  • Willem H. Buiter

Abstract

The distinctiof between predetermined and non-predetermined variables is a crucial one in rational expectations models. I consider and reject two definitions, one proposed by Blanchard and Kahn and one by Chow. Both definitions lead to possible misc1assifications. Instead I propose the following defin)tion. A variable is non-`redetermined if and only if its current value is a function of current anticipations mf future values of endogenous and/or exogenous variables. This definition focuses on the essential economic property of non-predetermined variables: unlike predetermined variables they can respond instantaneously to changes in expectations due to "news." The new definition also fits the structure of rational expectations models solution algorithms such as the one proposed by Blanchard and Kahn.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0021.

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Date of creation: Jan 1983
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Publication status: published as Buiter, Willem H. "Predetermined and Non-Predetermined Variables in Rational Expectations Models." Economics Letters, Vol. !0 (1982), pp. 49-44.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0021

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Cited by:
  1. Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2012. "Indeterminacy in a dynamic small open economy with international migration," MPRA Paper 40013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Loisel, Olivier, 2009. "Bubble-free policy feedback rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1521-1559, July.
  3. Kim, Young Chul, 2009. "Lifetime Network Externality and the Dynamics of Group Inequality," MPRA Paper 18767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
  5. Marini, G. & Scaramozzino, P., 1989. "Monopolistic competition, expected inflation and contract length," Discussion Paper 1989-40, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

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