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Bubble-free policy feedback rules

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  • Loisel, Olivier

Abstract

We consider a broad class of linear dynamic stochastic rational-expectations models made of a finite number N of structural equations for N+1 endogenous variables and to be closed by one policy feedback rule. We design, for any model of this class and any stationary VARMA solution of that model, a "bubble-free" policy feedback rule ensuring that this solution is not only the unique stationary solution of the closed model, but also its unique solution. We apply these results to locally linearisable models of the monetary transmission mechanism and obtain interest-rate rules that not only ensure the local determinacy of the targeted equilibrium in the neighbourhood of the steady state considered, but also prevent the economy from gradually leaving this neighbourhood.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 144 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 1521-1559

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:144:y:2009:i:4:p:1521-1559

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622869

Related research

Keywords: Linear dynamic rational-expectations models Policy feedback rules Rational bubbles Saddle-path property Interest-rate rules Local determinacy Global determinacy;

References

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  1. Currie,David & Levine,Paul, 1993. "Rules, Reputation and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521441964, October.
  2. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," CEPR Discussion Papers 2948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1981. "Speculative hyperinflations in a maximizing models: can we rule them out?," International Finance Discussion Papers 195, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1999. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," Departmental Working Papers 199914, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  7. Bennett T. McCallum, 1982. "Price Level Determinacy with an Interest Rate Policy Rule and Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Stefano Eusepi & Jess Benhabib, 2005. "The Design of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Global Perspective," 2005 Meeting Papers 926, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
  10. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2003. "Investment and interest rate policy: a discrete time analysis," Working Paper 0320, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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  12. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
  13. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2003. "Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability," Departmental Working Papers 200304, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  14. Bennett T. McCallum, . "Role of the minimal state variable criterion in rational expectations models," GSIA Working Papers 1999-13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  15. Buiter, Willem H., 1982. "Predetermined and non-predetermined variables in rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 49-54.
  16. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Scholarly Articles 12491027, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  17. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  18. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
  19. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  20. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2014. "Stability and Identification with Optimal Macroprudential Policy Rules," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01018490, HAL.
  2. repec:hal:cesptp:hal-00978145 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Olivier Loisel, 2013. "The Implementation of Stabilization Policy," Working Papers 2013-24, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  4. Blake, Andrew P., 2012. "Equally shocking news," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 866-869.

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