The Drivers of Mothers’ Parental Leave Decisions: Evidence from the Growing Up in New Zealand longitudinal survey

In this paper we compare mothers’ preferred leave, anticipated leave, and realised leave to shed light on how well different types of mothers are able to predict the parental leave they will take, and the factors that drive them to deviate from their plans. We use data from the Growing Up in New Zealand longitudinal survey on mothers’ preferred and anticipated leave reported antenatally, their realised leave, and the reasons they give for their leave-related choices to better understand the drivers of mothers’ leave decisions. We find mothers tend to anticipate substantially less leave than they prefer, but end up taking more leave on average than they anticipate. They have a moderate ability to take their preferred leave up to a year, but very little ability to take more than a year of leave. The 52 weeks of job-protected leave specified by law may play a role in this. Financial constraints are the most important factor driving mothers back to work. Certain types of mothers, such those with low income, are particularly prone to shocks that cause them to return to work earlier than anticipated, whereas as first-time mothers who plan a longer period of leave are vulnerable to shocks that cause them to delay their return to work.