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Modélisation des déterminants de la pauvreté durable et transitoire, et capital social aux Comores

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  • Jean-Pierre Lachaud

    ()
    (GED, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV)

Abstract

Fondée sur l(enquête intégrale auprès des ménages de 2004, la modélisation des déterminants de la pauvreté durable et transitoire aux Comores conduit à deux principales conclusions. En premier lieu, la relation entre les privations monétaires et le capital social est complexe. Le fait pour les ménages de recevoir des envois de fonds de l(étranger contribue à réduire à la fois la pauvreté durable et transitoire à Ngazidja, alors qu(aucun effet n(est observé à Ndzouani et Mwali. Inversement, l(existence de transferts internes est positivement corrélée avec la probabilité de pauvreté durable et transitoire uniquement dans ces deux dernières îles. Par ailleurs, la validité de l(hypothèse du capital social à l(origine d(externalités rehaussant l(efficience de l(échange social semble vérifiée, indépendamment de la localisation insulaire, bien que la réduction de la pauvreté durable, consécutivement à une plus grande participation à une association, ne soit réellement sensible qu(à Ngazidja. Enfin, l(accroissement des transferts nets en termes des dépenses par tête rehausse partout la probabilité d(appartenir aux groupes pauvres, plutôt que riches. En deuxième lieu, la pauvreté dépend également de la mobilisation et du rendement de multiples actifs physiques, matériels et humains, régis à la fois par les marchés, et diverses institutions, normes et valeurs. Premièrement, le fonctionnement du marché du travail affecte différemment le niveau de vie des familles selon les îles. Par exemple, à Ngazidja, les ménages dont le chef est éleveur ont près de 60 pour cent de chance d(être pauvres durables ou transitoires, alors qu(à Ndzouani et Mwali, ce niveau de vulnérabilité concerne les familles ayant à leur tête un micro-entrepreneur et ou un pêcheur. Par ailleurs, si le rehaussement du taux d(emploi par ménage réduit le risque de pauvreté durable dans les trois îles, la probabilité de pauvreté transitoire est beaucoup moins sensible à la variation de ce ratio, surtout à Ndzouani et Mwali où prédomine une plus grande proportion d(agriculteurs. Deuxièmement, le capital humain est un facteur de réduction des privations, mais l(impact varie selon les formes de pauvreté. Troisièmement, le rôle des facteurs démographiques apparaît nettement. La probabilité de pauvreté est inversement reliée à la taille du ménage, et la sensibilité est plus accentuée à Ndzouani et Mwali qu(à Ngazidja, notamment en ce qui concerne la pauvreté transitoire. De plus, dans toutes les îles, les ménages gérés par une femme ont une plus faible probabilité de pauvreté durable que ceux dirigés par un homme, mais l(avantage des ménages féminins en termes de pauvreté transitoire ne s(observe qu(à Ndzouani et Mwali. Enfin, l(âge du chef de ménage est directement relié avec la probabilité prédite de pauvreté transitoire, alors que l(inverse prévaut en ce qui concerne la pauvreté durable. Quatrièmement, la considération de la dimension spatiale montre que les ménages ont d(autant plus de chance d(être pauvres durables qu(ils sont localisés dans le milieu rural de Ngazidja et de Ndzouani, et, surtout, dans les villes ou les campagnes de Mwali. De même, les familles vivant dans les zones rurales de Ndzouani ont la plus forte probabilité de pauvreté transitoire. Based on the integrated households survey of 2004, the modeling of the determinants of durable and transient poverty in the Comoros leads to two principal conclusions. First of all, the relation between the monetary deprivations and the social capital is complex. The fact for the households of receiving remittances contributes to reduce at the same time durable and transient poverty to Ngazidja, whereas no effect is observed in Ndzouani and Mwali. Conversely, the existence of internal transfers is correlated positively with the probability of the durable and transient poverty only in these two last islands. In addition, the validity of the assumption that the social capital is at the origin of externalities increasing the efficiency of the social exchange seems checked, independently of the insular localization, although the reduction of durable poverty, consecutively with a greater participation in an association, is really observable only in Ngazidja. Lastly, the increase of net transfers in terms of the expenditure per capita raises everywhere the probability of belonging to the poor groups, rather than rich. In second place, poverty also depends on the availability and the return of multiple physical, material and human assets, governed at the same time by the markets, and various institutions, standards and values. Firstly, the operation of the labour market affects differently the welfare of the families according to islands. For example, in Ngazidja, the households whose head is stock-breeder have nearly 60 percent of chance to be durable or transient poor, whereas in Ndzouani and Mwali, this level of vulnerability concerns the families having at their head an informal worker or a fisherman. In addition, if the increase of the rate of employment by household reduces the risk of durable poverty in the three islands, the probability of transient poverty is much less sensitive to the variation of this ratio, especially in Ndzouani and Mwali where prevail a greater proportion of farmers. Secondly, the human capital is a factor of reduction of poverty, but the impact varies according to forms of deprivation. Thirdly, the role of the demographic factors appears clearly. The probability of poverty is conversely related to the size of the household, and the sensitivity is more accentuated in Ndzouani and Mwali than in Ngazidja, in particular with regard to transient poverty. Moreover, in all the islands, the households managed by a woman have a weaker probability of durable poverty than those directed by a man, but the advantage of the female households in terms of transient poverty is observed only in Ndzouani and Mwali. Lastly, the age of the household head is directly connected with the predicted probability of transient poverty, whereas the reverse prevails with regard to durable poverty. Fourthly, the consideration of spatial dimension shows that the households have more chance to be durable poor if they are localized in the rural areas of Ngazidja and Ndzouani, and, especially, in the cities or the fields of Mwali. In the same way, the families living in the rural areas of Ndzouani have the strongest probability of transient poverty. (Full text in french)

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Paper provided by Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its series Documents de travail with number 108.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:108

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  1. Yves Bourdet & Hans Falck, 2006. "Emigrants' remittances and Dutch Disease in Cape Verde," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 267-284.
  2. Jean-Pierre Lachaud, 1996. "Pauvreté,vulnérabilité et marché du travail au Burkina Faso," Série de recherche 02, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
  3. Steven Durlauf & Marcel Fafchamps, 2004. "Social Capital," Development and Comp Systems 0409060, EconWPA.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Fafchamps, Marcel, 2005. "Social Capital," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 26, pages 1639-1699 Elsevier.
  4. Steven N. Durlauf, 2002. "On the Empirics of Social Capital," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 459-479, November.
  5. Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Samir Jahjah, 2005. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 55-81, April.
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